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Happy Valley · 2022-11-23 · 22:59

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-23 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. EXCEPTIONAL NICE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with RED MAJESTY second and SPIRITED EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite ZONE D finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.39.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 EXCEPTIONAL NICE Closed strongly E/TT 1.39.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · W Y So 6 8.6 1/2
2 2 RED MAJESTY Closed strongly B/TT K H Chan · D A Hayes 1 33.0 1/2
3 1 SPIRITED EXPRESS Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu 9 7.4 1
4 9 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly CP1 J McNeil · C Fownes 8 7.2 1-1/2
5 6 MAJESTIC VICTORY Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 7.5 1-3/4
6 5 EN POINTE CP C L Chau · F C Lor 4 25.0 2-3/4
7 3 DYNAMIC SPIRIT Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 12 12.0 3
8 4 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT Z Purton · J Size 5 2.6 3-1/4
9 11 KEEN UNITY Closed strongly B/TT1 M Chadwick · A T Millard 10 46.0 4
10 8 JADE PHOENIX Led early CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 7 21.0 6-1/2
11 7 DR WINNING P-/TT S De Sousa · J Size 2 12.0 12-1/2
12 12 NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE B-/XB/CP1/TT C Wong · J Richards 3 61.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EXCEPTIONAL NICE2. RED MAJESTY+0.5L3. SPIRITED EXPRESS+1L4. STORM LEGEND+1.5L5. MAJESTIC VICTORY+1.75L6. EN POINTE+2.75L7. DYNAMIC SPIRIT+3L8. ZONE D+3.25L9. KEEN UNITY+4L10. JADE PHOENIX+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ZONE D (18.6%) finished 8th — the winner EXCEPTIONAL NICE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ZONE D 18.6% 5.38 8
2 1 SPIRITED EXPRESS 12.2% 8.23 3
3 9 STORM LEGEND 11.4% 8.74 4
4 6 MAJESTIC VICTORY 9.8% 10.22 5
5 10 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 9.6% 10.44 1
6 5 EN POINTE 8.9% 11.29 6
7 7 DR WINNING 7.9% 12.74 11
8 8 JADE PHOENIX 7.8% 12.85 10
9 2 RED MAJESTY 4.2% 23.70 2
10 11 KEEN UNITY 3.8% 26.61 9
11 12 NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE 3.2% 30.88 12
12 3 DYNAMIC SPIRIT 2.7% 36.43 7
ZONE DSPIRITED EXPRESSSTORM LEGENDMAJESTIC VICTORYEXCEPTIONAL NICE — wonEN POINTEDR WINNINGJADE PHOENIXRED MAJESTYKEEN UNITYNOTHING IMPOSSIBLEDYNAMIC SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 86

PLACE

1 25.5

2 71.5

10 25

QUINELLA

2,10 1,218

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 264.5

1,10 116.5

2,10 346.5

FORECAST

10,2 1,856

TIERCE

10,2,1 21,709

TRIO

1,2,10 2,661

FIRST 4

1,2,9,10 4,680

QUARTET

10,2,1,9 137,967

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 34

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

10,12>1,7/1,2,10 155,916

7TH DOUBLE

1,7/2 117.5

1,7/10 434.5

SIX UP

4,5/3,5/2,10/1,2/1,7,10/2,10 24,743

4/5/10/2/1,7/10 830,627

7 [H Bowman]

6 [K W Lui]

TREBLE

2/1,7/2 1,507

2/1,7/10 5,876