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Happy Valley · 2022-11-23 · 21:16

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C S Shum 2 5.0 1-3/4
2 0 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly H Bowman · K W Lui 8 6.3 1-3/4
3 0 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 12 23.0 4
4 0 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP K C Leung · D A Hayes 3 11.0 4-1/4
5 0 TAILOR MADE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 10.0 4-1/2
6 0 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B L Currie · D J Hall 6 4.4 5
7 0 TURIN WARRIOR Led early B/XB Z Purton · R Gibson 10 6.4 5-1/4
8 0 CHARIZARD B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard 1 9.5 6-3/4
9 0 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 18.0 7-1/2
10 0 TRIUMPHANT RETURN CP/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 4 19.0 12-1/2
11 0 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT V Borges · W Y So 7 31.0 16
12 0 GREAT BRILLIANT B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 11 123.0 29

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY DELIGHT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with WIN WIN FIGHTER second and SPICY GRILL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite RIGHT AS RAIN finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY DELIGHT—2. WIN WIN FIGHTER+1.75L3. SPICY GRILL+4L4. LIFELINE VISION+4.25L5. TAILOR MADE+4.5L6. RIGHT AS RAIN+5L7. TURIN WARRIOR+5.25L8. CHARIZARD+6.75L9. VIVA POPCORN+7.5L10. TRIUMPHANT RETURN+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TURIN WARRIOR (21.5%) finished 7th — the winner SUNNY DELIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TURIN WARRIOR 21.5% 4.65 7
2 0 SUNNY DELIGHT 16.1% 6.22 1
3 0 CHARIZARD 11.4% 8.74 8
4 0 RIGHT AS RAIN 9.0% 11.10 6
5 0 LIFELINE VISION 7.9% 12.60 4
6 0 TAILOR MADE 7.5% 13.31 5
7 0 VIVA POPCORN 6.2% 16.11 9
8 0 WIN WIN FIGHTER 6.2% 16.22 2
9 0 SPICY GRILL 4.6% 21.79 3
10 0 TRIUMPHANT RETURN 4.5% 22.03 10
11 0 JIANGXI STAMINA 4.3% 23.47 11
12 0 GREAT BRILLIANT 0.7% 134.44 12
TURIN WARRIORSUNNY DELIGHT — wonCHARIZARDRIGHT AS RAINLIFELINE VISIONTAILOR MADEVIVA POPCORNWIN WIN FIGHTERSPICY GRILLTRIUMPHANT RETURNJIANGXI STAMINAGREAT BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 50.5

PLACE

1 57

2 21

10 19

QUINELLA

2,10 155.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 212

1,10 204

2,10 61.5

FORECAST

10,2 377

TIERCE

10,2,1 6,085

TRIO

1,2,10 1,149

FIRST 4

1,2,6,10 3,074

QUARTET

10,2,1,6 59,593

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 25.5

A3 —

4TH DOUBLE

5/2 29.5

5/10 195.5