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Happy Valley · 2022-11-23 · 21:16

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY DELIGHT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with WIN WIN FIGHTER second and SPICY GRILL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite RIGHT AS RAIN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C S Shum 2 5.0 1-3/4
2 2 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly H Bowman · K W Lui 8 6.3 1-3/4
3 1 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 12 23.0 4
4 6 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP K C Leung · D A Hayes 3 11.0 4-1/4
5 9 TAILOR MADE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 10.0 4-1/2
6 5 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B L Currie · D J Hall 6 4.4 5
7 4 TURIN WARRIOR Led early B/XB Z Purton · R Gibson 10 6.4 5-1/4
8 11 CHARIZARD B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard 1 9.5 6-3/4
9 3 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 18.0 7-1/2
10 8 TRIUMPHANT RETURN CP/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 4 19.0 12-1/2
11 12 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT V Borges · W Y So 7 31.0 16
12 7 GREAT BRILLIANT B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 11 123.0 29

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY DELIGHT2. WIN WIN FIGHTER+1.75L3. SPICY GRILL+4L4. LIFELINE VISION+4.25L5. TAILOR MADE+4.5L6. RIGHT AS RAIN+5L7. TURIN WARRIOR+5.25L8. CHARIZARD+6.75L9. VIVA POPCORN+7.5L10. TRIUMPHANT RETURN+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TURIN WARRIOR (21.5%) finished 7th — the winner SUNNY DELIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TURIN WARRIOR 21.5% 4.65 7
2 10 SUNNY DELIGHT 16.1% 6.22 1
3 11 CHARIZARD 11.4% 8.74 8
4 5 RIGHT AS RAIN 9.0% 11.10 6
5 6 LIFELINE VISION 7.9% 12.60 4
6 9 TAILOR MADE 7.5% 13.31 5
7 3 VIVA POPCORN 6.2% 16.11 9
8 2 WIN WIN FIGHTER 6.2% 16.22 2
9 1 SPICY GRILL 4.6% 21.79 3
10 8 TRIUMPHANT RETURN 4.5% 22.03 10
11 12 JIANGXI STAMINA 4.3% 23.47 11
12 7 GREAT BRILLIANT 0.7% 134.44 12
TURIN WARRIORSUNNY DELIGHT — wonCHARIZARDRIGHT AS RAINLIFELINE VISIONTAILOR MADEVIVA POPCORNWIN WIN FIGHTERSPICY GRILLTRIUMPHANT RETURNJIANGXI STAMINAGREAT BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 50.5

PLACE

1 57

2 21

10 19

QUINELLA

2,10 155.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 212

1,10 204

2,10 61.5

FORECAST

10,2 377

TIERCE

10,2,1 6,085

TRIO

1,2,10 1,149

FIRST 4

1,2,6,10 3,074

QUARTET

10,2,1,6 59,593

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 25.5

4TH DOUBLE

5/2 29.5

5/10 195.5