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Happy Valley · 2022-12-14 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-14 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. MANAGEMENT FOLKS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with JUBILATION second and CABLE SPEED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite SKY GEM finished 6th.

Result

Official · 2.17.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly 2.17.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 1 6.4 N
2 4 JUBILATION V M L Yeung · L Ho 3 7.5 N
3 10 CABLE SPEED Closed strongly CP/TT L Currie · C W Chang 2 14.0 3-1/4
4 1 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui 5 4.5 4-1/4
5 3 BARON ZEE Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · R Gibson 11 24.0 5-1/2
6 5 SKY GEM Closed strongly K Teetan · C Fownes 8 4.1 7
7 9 SMILING FACE Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 10.0 8
8 12 OH BRAVO TT M F Poon · W Y So 12 20.0 8-1/4
9 8 FORTUNE PATROL B/H/XB R Maia · A T Millard 9 28.0 9-3/4
10 7 FOXHUNTER WAY Led early C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 7.0 12
11 11 FORTUNE WINNER B/H/TT H N Wong · K H Ting 6 134.0 12-1/4
12 6 LEISURE AND GOLD E/XB C L Chau · C H Yip 4 66.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MANAGEMENT FOLKS2. JUBILATION+0.05L3. CABLE SPEED+3.25L4. SUPERB DADDY+4.25L5. BARON ZEE+5.5L6. SKY GEM+7L7. SMILING FACE+8L8. OH BRAVO+8.25L9. FORTUNE PATROL+9.75L10. FOXHUNTER WAY+12L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUPERB DADDY (23.5%) finished 4th — the winner MANAGEMENT FOLKS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUPERB DADDY 23.5% 4.25 4
2 4 JUBILATION 11.6% 8.63 2
3 7 FOXHUNTER WAY 11.3% 8.83 10
4 5 SKY GEM 10.1% 9.92 6
5 2 MANAGEMENT FOLKS 8.1% 12.33 1
6 10 CABLE SPEED 7.9% 12.67 3
7 3 BARON ZEE 7.7% 12.92 5
8 12 OH BRAVO 6.3% 15.96 8
9 9 SMILING FACE 5.8% 17.18 7
10 8 FORTUNE PATROL 3.1% 32.08 9
11 6 LEISURE AND GOLD 2.4% 41.52 12
12 11 FORTUNE WINNER 2.1% 46.53 11
SUPERB DADDYJUBILATIONFOXHUNTER WAYSKY GEMMANAGEMENT FOLKS — wonCABLE SPEEDBARON ZEEOH BRAVOSMILING FACEFORTUNE PATROLLEISURE AND GOLDFORTUNE WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 64

PLACE

2 20.5

4 25.5

10 36.5

QUINELLA

2,4 220.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 71

2,10 83

4,10 145.5

FORECAST

2,4 374

TIERCE

2,4,10 3,500

TRIO

2,4,10 789

FIRST 4

1,2,4,10 1,066

QUARTET

2,4,10,1 21,055

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 26.5

A1