Happy Valley · 2022-12-14 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. E BROTHER, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with HAPPY SOUL second and PRIME MORTAR third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | E BROTHER B/TT 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 5 | 3.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 9 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | PRIME MORTAR CP/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | DURHAM STAR B/XB H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 4 | 3.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | TOP TOP TEA R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 10 | 37.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | COLONEL J McNeil · P F Yiu | J McNeil | P F Yiu | 11 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | ABOVE ALL H/XB Y L Chung · A T Millard | Y L Chung | A T Millard | 7 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | AMAZING INNOVATOR XB/B1/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 8 | 40.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | EQUILIBRIUM TURBO H-/B2 L Ferraris · R Gibson | L Ferraris | R Gibson | 6 | 25.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 2 | 6.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | FLAMING EAGLE PC/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 12 | 42.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | TURTLE AGAIN C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 69.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 14.8% | 6.76 | 10 |
| 2 | 12 | E BROTHER | 13.9% | 7.18 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | DURHAM STAR | 13.8% | 7.23 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | PRIME MORTAR | 10.3% | 9.66 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | COLONEL | 8.8% | 11.38 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | TURTLE AGAIN | 7.7% | 12.94 | 12 |
| 7 | 2 | EQUILIBRIUM TURBO | 7.7% | 12.96 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | HAPPY SOUL | 6.3% | 15.87 | 2 |
| 9 | 3 | ABOVE ALL | 4.9% | 20.57 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | FLAMING EAGLE | 4.4% | 22.67 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | TOP TOP TEA | 3.9% | 25.57 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | AMAZING INNOVATOR | 3.4% | 29.52 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 30.5
PLACE
6 39.5
9 31
12 13
QUINELLA
9,12 187.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 194.5
6,12 98.5
9,12 80.5
FORECAST
12,9 322
TIERCE
12,9,6 3,268
TRIO
6,9,12 773
FIRST 4
1,6,9,12 458
QUARTET
12,9,6,1 10,226
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 20
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/9 181
2/12 277