Happy Valley · 2022-12-14 · 21:46
Race 7
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT 0.56.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 5 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SPECIAL M PC/TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 7 | 4.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | GORGEOUS VITALITY Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 12 | 6.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | METRO WARRIOR B C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 2 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | WIND N GRASS B/XB/TT M L Yeung · J Richards | M L Yeung | J Richards | 4 | 21.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT H T Mo · P C Ng | H T Mo | P C Ng | 11 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | SERGEANT PEPPER M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 10 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | CIRCUIT TEN H1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | TALENTS SUPREMO XB1 L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 6 | 69.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | CLASSIC POSH C L Chau · D J Hall | C L Chau | D J Hall | 8 | 102.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | MAGIC TORONADO K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 1 | 91.0 | 11-1/4 |
| — | 0 | HARMONY FIRE SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | — | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-14 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with SPECIAL M second and GORGEOUS VITALITY third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 28.6% | 3.50 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 14.1% | 7.10 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | SPECIAL M | 11.6% | 8.63 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | CIRCUIT TEN | 9.7% | 10.30 | 9 |
| 5 | 0 | METRO WARRIOR | 9.0% | 11.07 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 6.9% | 14.48 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | WIND N GRASS | 5.4% | 18.51 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | HARMONY FIRE | 5.3% | 18.90 | — |
| 9 | 0 | SUPER COMMANDER | 3.8% | 26.41 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | CLASSIC POSH | 2.4% | 41.06 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 2.2% | 44.72 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | MAGIC TORONADO | 1.0% | 104.62 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 30
PLACE
2 15
3 22
4 15.5
QUINELLA
2,4 73.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 55
2,4 27
3,4 48.5
FORECAST
4,2 102
TIERCE
4,2,3 394
TRIO
2,3,4 113
FIRST 4
1,2,3,4 197
QUARTET
4,2,3,1 1,861
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,9/2,3,4 1,742
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 24
6TH DOUBLE
9/2 29
9/4 75
TRIPLE TRIO
1,4,12/4,5,9/2,3,4 104,408
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,12/4,5,9/Any Combination 776