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Happy Valley · 2022-12-14 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KING ECCELLENTE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with SAVVY CHIC second and HERO STAR third. The 2.5 favourite SAVVY CHIC finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 KING ECCELLENTE SR-/H/XB/CP1 1.09.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 11.0 1/2
2 1 SAVVY CHIC TT S De Sousa · F C Lor 1 2.5 1/2
3 4 HERO STAR TT Z Purton · K L Man 6 5.4 3/4
4 6 D STAR B1/H1/TT1 L Ferraris · A S Cruz 3 64.0 3-1/2
5 11 GALLANT HERO BO/XB/TT- L Hewitson · D J Hall 4 9.9 3-1/2
6 5 LYRICAL MOTION CP-/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 12 26.0 4
7 2 HARMONY N HOME Y L Chung · C S Shum 8 5.7 5-1/4
8 8 ISLAND SHINE B2/TT J McNeil · P F Yiu 2 10.0 5-1/4
9 3 AUGUST MOON B/TT L Currie · J Richards 11 55.0 5-3/4
10 10 YOUNG HORIZON M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 71.0 6
11 7 SUPER JOY P K C Leung · L Ho 7 93.0 6-3/4
12 9 OUR CLASS ACT H H Bowman · Y S Tsui 9 12.0 8
0 BRILLIANT PIONEER · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING ECCELLENTE2. SAVVY CHIC+0.5L3. HERO STAR+0.75L4. D STAR+3.5L5. GALLANT HERO+3.5L6. LYRICAL MOTION+4L7. HARMONY N HOME+5.25L8. ISLAND SHINE+5.25L9. AUGUST MOON+5.75L10. YOUNG HORIZON+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SAVVY CHIC (21.1%) finished 2nd — the winner KING ECCELLENTE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SAVVY CHIC 21.1% 4.75 2
2 4 HERO STAR 16.0% 6.25 3
3 12 KING ECCELLENTE 13.1% 7.65 1
4 8 ISLAND SHINE 8.5% 11.73 8
5 2 HARMONY N HOME 8.3% 12.11 7
6 11 GALLANT HERO 7.2% 13.80 5
7 9 OUR CLASS ACT 7.1% 14.09 12
8 5 LYRICAL MOTION 6.5% 15.29 6
9 6 D STAR 5.1% 19.60 4
10 3 AUGUST MOON 3.0% 32.98 9
11 10 YOUNG HORIZON 2.2% 45.34 10
12 7 SUPER JOY 1.9% 53.65 11
SAVVY CHICHERO STARKING ECCELLENTE — wonISLAND SHINEHARMONY N HOMEGALLANT HEROOUR CLASS ACTLYRICAL MOTIOND STARAUGUST MOONYOUNG HORIZONSUPER JOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 118.5

PLACE

1 12

4 19

12 36.5

QUINELLA

1,12 207

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 34.5

1,12 78

4,12 108.5

FORECAST

12,1 771

TIERCE

12,1,4 3,395

TRIO

1,4,12 266

FIRST 4

1,4,6,12 2,803

QUARTET

12,1,4,6 82,585

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,12/1,4,12 44,739

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 35.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

12/1 14

12/12 921