Happy Valley · 2022-12-14 · 22:53
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-14 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY TYCOON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1, with OUR LUCKY GLORY second and JUMBO LEGEND third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BEAUTY TYCOON H/P 1.09.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 2.3 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | OUR LUCKY GLORY SR H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 5 | 6.2 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | JUMBO LEGEND H/B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 4.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 10 | 8.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | COBHFIELD XB C L Chau · A T Millard | C L Chau | A T Millard | 8 | 48.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | GUMMY GUMMY J McNeil · T P Yung | J McNeil | T P Yung | 1 | 68.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SMART IDEA H/TT L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 6 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | NABOO LEGEND CP- L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 9 | 50.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | DECRYPT TT S De Sousa · P C Ng | S De Sousa | P C Ng | 4 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | DRAGON ADMIRAL H/XB K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 7 | 137.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 8 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 12 | 115.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 3 | IGNITING B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 11 | 20.0 | 5 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BEAUTY TYCOON | 36.4% | 2.75 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | JUMBO LEGEND | 18.4% | 5.43 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA CIBLE | 12.7% | 7.84 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | DECRYPT | 6.5% | 15.43 | 9 |
| 5 | 10 | OUR LUCKY GLORY | 6.2% | 16.02 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | SMART IDEA | 4.2% | 23.58 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | IGNITING | 4.1% | 24.15 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | NABOO LEGEND | 3.0% | 33.78 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 | COBHFIELD | 2.7% | 36.56 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 2.3% | 43.61 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | GUMMY GUMMY | 2.2% | 44.91 | 6 |
| 12 | 11 | DRAGON ADMIRAL | 1.1% | 88.59 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 23
PLACE
2 13
10 19
12 14.5
QUINELLA
2,10 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,10 33.5
2,12 22
10,12 39.5
FORECAST
2,10 105
TIERCE
2,10,12 272
TRIO
2,10,12 72
FIRST 4
1,2,10,12 148
QUARTET
2,10,12,1 1,719
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 14.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
7,9>2,3/2,10,12 3,447
8TH DOUBLE
9/2 83.5
9/10 34
SIX UP
9,12/1,12/4,9/2,4/2,3,9/2,10 180
12/12/9/4/9/2 49,555
7 [J Size] —
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
4/9/2 281
4/9/10 154