Sha Tin · 2022-12-24 · 15:03
Race 5
Class 4
GOOD TO FIRM
2000m
Course B
14 runners
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-24 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BRIGHT KID, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with KOWLOON GREAT second and WONDER YEARS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite RIGHT AS RAIN finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB 2.01.94 H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 2 | 5.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 10 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 5 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 14 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | VINCY Closed strongly K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 11 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC V Borges · P C Ng | V Borges | P C Ng | 8 | 52.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR M F Poon · D A Hayes | M F Poon | D A Hayes | 7 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA B/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 6 | 5.8 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | RIGHT AS RAIN B L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 4 | 3.9 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | FLYING MIGHTY B/TT K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 1 | 52.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | RED ELYSEES B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 12 | 24.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | CIRCUIT ELITE TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 13 | 39.0 | 19-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | PERFECT MARYKNOLL B/TT R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 3 | 8.6 | 21-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | LUCKY VICTOR Led early B/TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 9 | 160.0 | 25-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick KUNGFUMASTER PANDA (21.9%) finished 8th — the winner BRIGHT KID was rated #3.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 21.9% | 4.57 | 8 |
| 2 | 5 | RIGHT AS RAIN | 11.3% | 8.85 | 9 |
| 3 | 4 | BRIGHT KID | 10.7% | 9.30 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | KOWLOON GREAT | 7.9% | 12.61 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | CHATER PINS | 7.6% | 13.15 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 6.8% | 14.80 | 12 |
| 7 | 13 | WONDER YEARS | 6.3% | 15.97 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | VINCY | 6.1% | 16.41 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | RED ELYSEES | 4.5% | 22.34 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | ROBOT WARRIOR | 4.3% | 23.37 | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | PERFECT MARYKNOLL | 4.2% | 23.74 | 13 |
| 12 | 6 | WINNING STEPS | 3.3% | 30.19 | 6 |
| 13 | 14 | LUCKY VICTOR | 2.7% | 37.29 | 14 |
| 14 | 12 | FLYING MIGHTY | 2.5% | 40.32 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 4
Race 6 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 2000m
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