Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. FOREVER GLORIOUS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with MOONLUCK second and FORTUNE TRIPLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite MEDIC ELITE finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly B/TT 1.50.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | MOONLUCK Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 81.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 6 | 19.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | SMART COUSIN Closed strongly R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 7 | 9.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson | L Ferraris | R Gibson | 11 | 40.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 2 | 37.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | LOYAL AMBITION B-/H-/V1/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 4 | 4.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | MEDIC ELITE PC/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 5 | 2.8 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | BEAUTY NOVA H/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 1 | 8.9 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | GIVE WAY PLEASE Led early B/H/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 3 | 43.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | ASIAN ONE P-/XB/TT S De Sousa · J Richards | S De Sousa | J Richards | 9 | 5.4 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | SIMPLE DOCTRINE B-/XB H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 10 | 150.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MEDIC ELITE | 30.6% | 3.27 | 8 |
| 2 | 3 | ASIAN ONE | 17.9% | 5.57 | 11 |
| 3 | 5 | LOYAL AMBITION | 14.6% | 6.85 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | BEAUTY NOVA | 7.0% | 14.29 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | FORTUNE TRIPLE | 6.4% | 15.55 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 5.6% | 17.81 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | JOLLY FOREVER | 5.0% | 19.95 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | MOONLUCK | 3.6% | 27.79 | 2 |
| 9 | 10 | SMART COUSIN | 3.4% | 29.38 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | GIVE WAY PLEASE | 3.1% | 32.53 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | GO BALLISTIC | 1.5% | 65.53 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | SIMPLE DOCTRINE | 1.2% | 82.28 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 119
PLACE
1 35.5
8 42
11 132.5
QUINELLA
1,11 3,739.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 254
1,11 852.5
8,11 1,508
FORECAST
1,11 5,581
TIERCE
1,11,8 74,395
TRIO
1,8,11 21,661
FIRST 4
1,8,10,11 29,397
QUARTET
1,11,8,10 1,137,214
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 43.5
A2 —