Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 22:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HUMBLE STAR, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with CALIFORNIA CIBLE second and LUCKY EIGHT third. The 3.2 favourite ADIOS finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HUMBLE STAR SR1/TT1 1.09.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 3 | 9.2 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 3.6 | — |
| 3 | 8 | LUCKY EIGHT CP K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 11 | 25.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | NAMJONG SINGS B H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 1 | 7.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 18.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | SEIZING THE MOMENT B Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 7 | 6.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | HERE COMES TED B/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 4 | 28.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | EXCELLENT DADDY TT A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 10 | 98.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | ADIOS V S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 6 | 3.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | HARMONY FIRE SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 2 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | MAGIC PHOENIX B-/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 8 | 77.0 | 5-1/2 |
| — | 5 | NABOO LEGEND K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ADIOS | 39.1% | 2.56 | 9 |
| 2 | 2 | SEIZING THE MOMENT | 15.0% | 6.65 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | CALIFORNIA CIBLE | 13.6% | 7.38 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 7.1% | 14.08 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | NAMJONG SINGS | 6.3% | 15.92 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | LUCKY EIGHT | 5.9% | 16.98 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | HERE COMES TED | 3.4% | 29.59 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | HARMONY FIRE | 3.3% | 30.54 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | HUMBLE STAR | 2.5% | 40.38 | 1 |
| 10 | 10 | MAGIC PHOENIX | 2.3% | 44.25 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 1.6% | 62.46 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 92
PLACE
3 14.5
8 56.5
11 34.5
QUINELLA
3,11 167.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 173.5
3,11 67.5
8,11 401.5
FORECAST
11,3 504
TIERCE
11,3,8 7,513
TRIO
3,8,11 1,674
FIRST 4
3,4,8,11 2,423
QUARTET
11,3,8,4 54,864
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 19.5
A1 —
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
3/3 10.5
3/11 113