Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 19:46
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HARDLY SWEARS, ridden by H Bentley and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with ISLAND SURPRISE second and SURE JOYFUL third. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HARDLY SWEARS CP/TT 1.10.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 2 | 4.3 | N |
| 2 | 8 | ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 9 | 5.3 | N |
| 3 | 9 | SURE JOYFUL V R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 4 | 10.0 | N |
| 4 | 10 | MY INTELLIGENT V2/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 1 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | PROSECCO SR-/H/B1 A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 10 | 23.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | FLAMING PASSION TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 12 | 20.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | FUN N GLORY E1/TT H Bowman · W Y So | H Bowman | W Y So | 8 | 6.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | D STAR B/H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 6 | 8.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | EAGLE RUN B/TT1 C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 5 | 70.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | FIGHTING STAR B-/XB-/TT- M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 7 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | FARSHAD CP C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 34.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 6 | INSPIRING CITY H K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 11 | 45.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 16.4% | 6.09 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | FUN N GLORY | 11.6% | 8.60 | 7 |
| 3 | 10 | MY INTELLIGENT | 9.9% | 10.10 | 4 |
| 4 | 12 | FARSHAD | 9.4% | 10.63 | 11 |
| 5 | 7 | HARDLY SWEARS | 9.3% | 10.74 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | FLAMING PASSION | 8.8% | 11.30 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | SURE JOYFUL | 8.1% | 12.36 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | D STAR | 7.5% | 13.29 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 | INSPIRING CITY | 6.0% | 16.64 | 12 |
| 10 | 11 | FIGHTING STAR | 6.0% | 16.74 | 10 |
| 11 | 5 | PROSECCO | 5.4% | 18.53 | 5 |
| 12 | 4 | EAGLE RUN | 1.5% | 67.45 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 43.5
PLACE
7 16
8 18.5
9 33
QUINELLA
7,8 130
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 49.5
7,9 69
8,9 97
FORECAST
7,8 343
TIERCE
7,8,9 2,001
TRIO
7,8,9 312
FIRST 4
7,8,9,10 432
QUARTET
7,8,9,10 9,329
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
7/7 818
7/8 151.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 19.5