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Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. G ONE EXCELLENT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with TRONIC MIGHTY second and COLOURFUL PRINCE third. The 2.6 favourite TRONIC MIGHTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.57.49
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 G ONE EXCELLENT B/TT 0.57.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C S Shum 5 2.8 N
2 9 TRONIC MIGHTY CP/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 6 2.6 N
3 2 COLOURFUL PRINCE H-/SR-/B2/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 3 6.0 1-1/2
4 11 BOOMING WELL B1 H Bentley · C H Yip 4 65.0 1-1/2
5 12 RAGING BLAZE TT S De Sousa · J Size 7 11.0 2-1/4
6 6 EUROMISSILE H-/B/XB H Bowman · C W Chang 2 15.0 2-1/4
7 7 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR H/XB M F Poon · T P Yung 1 74.0 2-1/4
8 8 SPLIT OF A SECOND CP A Hamelin · W Y So 12 64.0 2-3/4
9 3 TREASURE OF FIELD B/TT K H Chan · K H Ting 9 27.0 4-1/4
10 5 STAR OF WUYI B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 11 18.0 5-1/2
11 10 SUPER CLASS H/P/XB C L Chau · A T Millard 10 58.0 7-1/2
12 4 CARRY THE DIAMOND PC L Ferraris · R Gibson 8 66.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. G ONE EXCELLENT2. TRONIC MIGHTY+0.05L3. COLOURFUL PRINCE+1.5L4. BOOMING WELL+1.5L5. RAGING BLAZE+2.25L6. EUROMISSILE+2.25L7. CIRCUIT SPLENDOR+2.25L8. SPLIT OF A SECOND+2.75L9. TREASURE OF FIELD+4.25L10. STAR OF WUYI+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TRONIC MIGHTY (28.3%) finished 2nd — the winner G ONE EXCELLENT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 TRONIC MIGHTY 28.3% 3.53 2
2 1 G ONE EXCELLENT 22.6% 4.42 1
3 2 COLOURFUL PRINCE 11.9% 8.41 3
4 12 RAGING BLAZE 11.3% 8.87 5
5 6 EUROMISSILE 6.4% 15.54 6
6 5 STAR OF WUYI 4.6% 21.52 10
7 3 TREASURE OF FIELD 3.6% 27.74 9
8 8 SPLIT OF A SECOND 3.0% 33.18 8
9 10 SUPER CLASS 2.5% 40.73 11
10 11 BOOMING WELL 2.3% 43.60 4
11 7 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 1.7% 57.35 7
12 4 CARRY THE DIAMOND 1.7% 58.29 12
TRONIC MIGHTYG ONE EXCELLENT — wonCOLOURFUL PRINCERAGING BLAZEEUROMISSILESTAR OF WUYITREASURE OF FIELDSPLIT OF A SECONDSUPER CLASSBOOMING WELLCIRCUIT SPLENDORCARRY THE DIAMOND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 28.5

PLACE

1 12.5

2 23

9 11

QUINELLA

1,9 38.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 38

1,9 19

2,9 34.5

FORECAST

1,9 105

TIERCE

1,9,2 335

TRIO

1,2,9 65

FIRST 4

1,2,9,11 479

QUARTET

1,9,2,11 5,554

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 13.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE

7/1 187

7/9 34