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Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 20:47

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. PERFECT TO GREAT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with STAR CONTACT second and GALLANT HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite STAR CONTACT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly SR/TT 1.40.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C Fownes 7 5.3 SH
2 3 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 2.1 SH
3 9 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly BO/XB M F Poon · D J Hall 3 7.7 3
4 5 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 5 5.6 3
5 11 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V R Maia · P F Yiu 8 15.0 3-1/4
6 12 FORTUNE PRESIDENT Closed strongly B- H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 125.0 4
7 1 STARFIRE GEMS XB-/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 6 41.0 5
8 2 BILLIONAIRE SECRET H/PC/XB2/TT- K C Leung · P C Ng 2 13.0 5-3/4
9 4 EQUILIBRIUM TURBO B-/TT1 S De Sousa · R Gibson 1 13.0 7-1/2
10 6 BELL OF HAPPINESS Closed strongly H/TT L Currie · C W Chang 11 226.0 15
11 7 SMILING MOON Led early CP M L Yeung · K H Ting 10 136.0 17-1/4
8 CHIU CHOW BROTHER C L Chau · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PERFECT TO GREAT2. STAR CONTACT+0.1L3. GALLANT HERO+3L4. SUNNY DELIGHT+3L5. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+3.25L6. FORTUNE PRESIDENT+4L7. STARFIRE GEMS+5L8. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+5.75L9. EQUILIBRIUM TURBO+7.5L10. BELL OF HAPPINESS+15L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUNNY DELIGHT (18.2%) finished 4th — the winner PERFECT TO GREAT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SUNNY DELIGHT 18.2% 5.50 4
2 3 STAR CONTACT 18.0% 5.55 2
3 10 PERFECT TO GREAT 14.8% 6.75 1
4 4 EQUILIBRIUM TURBO 13.1% 7.63 9
5 9 GALLANT HERO 12.1% 8.26 3
6 11 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 11.6% 8.64 5
7 2 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 5.9% 17.07 8
8 1 STARFIRE GEMS 2.2% 45.40 7
9 12 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 1.8% 55.24 6
10 6 BELL OF HAPPINESS 1.3% 79.19 10
11 7 SMILING MOON 1.1% 93.35 11
SUNNY DELIGHTSTAR CONTACTPERFECT TO GREAT — wonEQUILIBRIUM TURBOGALLANT HEROWINWIN THIRTYTHREEBILLIONAIRE SECRETSTARFIRE GEMSFORTUNE PRESIDENTBELL OF HAPPINESSSMILING MOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 53

PLACE

3 11

9 22.5

10 17

QUINELLA

3,10 67.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 40

3,10 29.5

9,10 57

FORECAST

10,3 182

TIERCE

10,3,9 867

TRIO

3,9,10 137

FIRST 4

3,5,9,10 78

QUARTET

10,3,9,5 2,511

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,9/9>3,8,10 1,109

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 15.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

1/3,8 16

1/10 123