Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 21:46
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. RATTAN KINGDOM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 3/4, with HARMONY N HOME second and SON PAK FU third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RATTAN KINGDOM B/XB/TT 1.09.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 4 | 1.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | HARMONY N HOME K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 3 | 9.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | SON PAK FU B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | TURBO POWER B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | DURHAM STAR B/XB H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 5 | 9.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | VANTASTIC CHOICE A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 6 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB S De Sousa · D J Hall | S De Sousa | D J Hall | 9 | 45.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | HAPPY GATHERING M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 2 | 41.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | HAPPY TANGO B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 37.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | SUPER MAGIC CP1 L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 12 | 151.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | FAITHFUL CHAMPION H1/TT1 L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 10 | 94.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | CHARMING STEED TT Y L Chung · C Fownes | Y L Chung | C Fownes | 11 | 32.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RATTAN KINGDOM | 44.1% | 2.27 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | HARMONY N HOME | 11.7% | 8.52 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | DURHAM STAR | 9.2% | 10.90 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | HAPPY GATHERING | 6.6% | 15.07 | 8 |
| 5 | 9 | TURBO POWER | 5.1% | 19.57 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | SON PAK FU | 4.5% | 22.26 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 4.2% | 23.70 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | CHARMING STEED | 4.1% | 24.18 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | FAITHFUL CHAMPION | 3.9% | 25.80 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | HAPPY TANGO | 2.6% | 38.06 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | VANTASTIC CHOICE | 2.6% | 38.54 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | SUPER MAGIC | 1.3% | 75.04 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 13.5
PLACE
2 20
3 10.1
11 35.5
QUINELLA
2,3 54.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 24.5
2,11 154.5
3,11 51.5
FORECAST
3,2 66
TIERCE
3,2,11 889
TRIO
2,3,11 198
FIRST 4
2,3,9,11 497
QUARTET
3,2,11,9 4,750
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,5/2,3,11 38,414
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 12
6TH DOUBLE
5/2 199.5
5/3 435.5
TRIPLE TRIO
9>3,8,10/2,3,5/2,3,11 623,786
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
9>3,8,10/2,3,5/Any Combination 2,415