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Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 2 GOOD 2200m Course C+3 8 runners

Result

Official · 2.16.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly CP-/TT 2.16.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 2 13.0 N
2 0 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 4 7.6 N
3 0 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 7 6.8 3/4
4 0 RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 8 4.7 2
5 0 ENJOYING Led early B/TT S De Sousa · W Y So 1 18.0 2-1/4
6 0 RUNNING GLORY Z Purton · J Size 6 4.1 3-1/4
7 0 SIGHT SPIRIT M F Poon · J Size 3 5.1 3-3/4
8 0 SPIRITED EXPRESS B K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 6.3 8-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 2 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. LOOKING GREAT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with BERLIN TANGO second and NEARLY FINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite RUNNING GLORY finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOOKING GREAT—2. BERLIN TANGO+0.05L3. NEARLY FINE+0.75L4. RISE BRETHREN+2L5. ENJOYING+2.25L6. RUNNING GLORY+3.25L7. SIGHT SPIRIT+3.75L8. SPIRITED EXPRESS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RUNNING GLORY (20.2%) finished 6th — the winner LOOKING GREAT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RUNNING GLORY 20.2% 4.96 6
2 0 RISE BRETHREN 19.1% 5.24 4
3 0 NEARLY FINE 13.1% 7.62 3
4 0 SPIRITED EXPRESS 9.9% 10.09 8
5 0 LOOKING GREAT 9.8% 10.20 1
6 0 BERLIN TANGO 9.6% 10.47 2
7 0 ENJOYING 9.5% 10.55 5
8 0 SIGHT SPIRIT 8.9% 11.24 7
RUNNING GLORYRISE BRETHRENNEARLY FINESPIRITED EXPRESSLOOKING GREAT — wonBERLIN TANGOENJOYINGSIGHT SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 131

PLACE

1 25.5

4 19

7 29

QUINELLA

1,7 527.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 86

1,7 149

4,7 146

FORECAST

7,1 1,121

TIERCE

7,1,4 8,530

TRIO

1,4,7 964

FIRST 4

1,3,4,7 574

QUARTET

7,1,4,3 20,797

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 135

1/7 1,126.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 23