Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 2 GOOD 2200m Course C+3 8 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 2 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. LOOKING GREAT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with BERLIN TANGO second and NEARLY FINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite RUNNING GLORY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 2.16.68

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly CP-/TT 2.16.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	2	119 lb	13.0	N
2	1	BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz	H Bowman	A S Cruz	4	135 lb	7.6	N
3	4	NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes	M L Yeung	C Fownes	7	123 lb	6.8	3/4
4	3	RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C S Shum	C Y Ho	C S Shum	8	128 lb	4.7	2
5	6	ENJOYING Led early B/TT S De Sousa · W Y So	S De Sousa	W Y So	1	122 lb	18.0	2-1/4
6	2	RUNNING GLORY Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	6	134 lb	4.1	3-1/4
7	8	SIGHT SPIRIT M F Poon · J Size	M F Poon	J Size	3	115 lb	5.1	3-3/4
8	5	SPIRITED EXPRESS B K C Leung · P F Yiu	K C Leung	P F Yiu	5	123 lb	6.3	8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick RUNNING GLORY (20.2%) finished 6th — the winner LOOKING GREAT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	RUNNING GLORY	20.2%	4.96	6	4.1
2	3	RISE BRETHREN	19.1%	5.24	4	4.7
3	4	NEARLY FINE	13.1%	7.62	3	6.8
4	5	SPIRITED EXPRESS	9.9%	10.09	8	6.3
5	7	LOOKING GREAT	9.8%	10.20	1	13.0
6	1	BERLIN TANGO	9.6%	10.47	2	7.6
7	6	ENJOYING	9.5%	10.55	5	18.0
8	8	SIGHT SPIRIT	8.9%	11.24	7	5.1

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 131

PLACE

1 25.5

4 19

7 29

QUINELLA

1,7 527.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 86

1,7 149

4,7 146

FORECAST

7,1 1,121

TIERCE

7,1,4 8,530

TRIO

1,4,7 964

FIRST 4

1,3,4,7 574

QUARTET

7,1,4,3 20,797

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 135

1/7 1,126.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 23

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