Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-12-28 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LEAN HERO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with COPARTNER ERA second and SPICY GRILL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite THETA HEDGE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.40.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 LEAN HERO Closed strongly CP2 1.40.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 21.0 1/2
2 2 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B L Ferraris · W Y So 1 7.5 1/2
3 3 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 10 4.3 1/2
4 12 THETA HEDGE Led early B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 3.0 3/4
5 7 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 5 46.0 1-1/2
6 1 SUPER BABY CP Y L Chung · P F Yiu 8 22.0 2-1/2
7 8 UNITED ENDEAVORS H/P1 K C Leung · L Ho 3 5.6 3-1/4
8 6 AMAZING BOY P/TT S De Sousa · C W Chang 6 9.4 3-3/4
9 11 BALLISTIC MAN Closed strongly H-/B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 7 160.0 3-3/4
10 10 LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly V H Bentley · D J Hall 12 48.0 3-3/4
11 9 SUNNY AND GOLD TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 9 87.0 9-3/4
12 4 BIG TWO H/SR/XB H Bowman · D J Whyte 11 11.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEAN HERO2. COPARTNER ERA+0.5L3. SPICY GRILL+0.5L4. THETA HEDGE+0.75L5. V CHEVALIERS+1.5L6. SUPER BABY+2.5L7. UNITED ENDEAVORS+3.25L8. AMAZING BOY+3.75L9. BALLISTIC MAN+3.75L10. LUCKY MISSILE+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick THETA HEDGE (17.1%) finished 4th — the winner LEAN HERO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 THETA HEDGE 17.1% 5.83 4
2 6 AMAZING BOY 14.5% 6.90 8
3 5 LEAN HERO 14.1% 7.08 1
4 3 SPICY GRILL 11.6% 8.63 3
5 8 UNITED ENDEAVORS 11.3% 8.87 7
6 9 SUNNY AND GOLD 7.1% 14.17 11
7 2 COPARTNER ERA 6.9% 14.51 2
8 4 BIG TWO 6.8% 14.80 12
9 7 V CHEVALIERS 3.6% 27.87 5
10 10 LUCKY MISSILE 3.4% 29.57 10
11 1 SUPER BABY 2.5% 40.62 6
12 11 BALLISTIC MAN 1.2% 80.92 9
THETA HEDGEAMAZING BOYLEAN HERO — wonSPICY GRILLUNITED ENDEAVORSSUNNY AND GOLDCOPARTNER ERABIG TWOV CHEVALIERSLUCKY MISSILESUPER BABYBALLISTIC MAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 219

PLACE

2 23

3 18

5 69

QUINELLA

2,5 1,082.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 67.5

2,5 280.5

3,5 190

FORECAST

5,2 1,820

TIERCE

5,2,3 8,851

TRIO

2,3,5 1,585

FIRST 4

2,3,5,12 914

QUARTET

5,2,3,12 31,170

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 31.5

A3

A1

5TH DOUBLE

10/2 82.5

10/5 716