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Happy Valley · 2023-01-11 · 18:47

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PRIME MORTAR, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with ALL IS GOOD second and HOSS third. The 2.5 favourite ALL IS GOOD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 PRIME MORTAR CP/XB1/TT 1.09.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting 4 5.5 1/2
2 11 ALL IS GOOD B C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 2.5 1/2
3 5 HOSS XB/TT1 L Hewitson · J Richards 9 78.0 1
4 8 ACE TALENT B-/H1/TT A Badel · C Fownes 1 6.6 1-1/4
5 1 EXUBERANT B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 7 9.3 1-1/4
6 6 INFINITE POWER CP H Bentley · P C Ng 5 10.0 1-1/2
7 12 MIRACLES B M F Poon · K L Man 6 10.0 3-3/4
8 10 SPEEDY FORTUNE S De Sousa · J Size 12 99.0 4-3/4
9 7 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 10 49.0 5-3/4
10 4 EAGLE RUN B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 46.0 6
11 2 SIGHT HERO B/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 11 33.0 7-1/4
12 3 COOL BLUE TT Z Purton · F C Lor 8 10.0 20-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRIME MORTAR2. ALL IS GOOD+0.5L3. HOSS+1L4. ACE TALENT+1.25L5. EXUBERANT+1.25L6. INFINITE POWER+1.5L7. MIRACLES+3.75L8. SPEEDY FORTUNE+4.75L9. OVERSUBSCRIBED+5.75L10. EAGLE RUN+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick COOL BLUE (18.9%) finished 12th — the winner PRIME MORTAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 COOL BLUE 18.9% 5.30 12
2 11 ALL IS GOOD 18.8% 5.31 2
3 9 PRIME MORTAR 15.4% 6.51 1
4 1 EXUBERANT 10.2% 9.79 5
5 12 MIRACLES 8.1% 12.41 7
6 6 INFINITE POWER 6.7% 14.97 6
7 8 ACE TALENT 4.6% 21.71 4
8 7 OVERSUBSCRIBED 4.5% 22.10 9
9 2 SIGHT HERO 4.5% 22.14 11
10 10 SPEEDY FORTUNE 4.0% 25.11 8
11 4 EAGLE RUN 2.7% 37.00 10
12 5 HOSS 1.6% 61.26 3
COOL BLUEALL IS GOODPRIME MORTAR — wonEXUBERANTMIRACLESINFINITE POWERACE TALENTOVERSUBSCRIBEDSIGHT HEROSPEEDY FORTUNEEAGLE RUNHOSS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 55

PLACE

5 152

9 18

11 12

QUINELLA

9,11 70

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 539.5

5,11 240.5

9,11 28

FORECAST

9,11 183

TIERCE

9,11,5 5,816

TRIO

5,9,11 1,103

FIRST 4

5,8,9,11 2,087

QUARTET

9,11,5,8 32,553

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17.5