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Happy Valley · 2023-01-11 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUPER BABY, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with SUNNY DELIGHT second and PACKING SUCCEEDER third. The winner led throughout. The 4.6 favourite PERFECT TO GREAT finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.41.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SUPER BABY Wire to wire CP 1.41.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P F Yiu 10 15.0 SH
2 9 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B-/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 2 5.5 SH
3 7 PACKING SUCCEEDER Closed strongly M F Poon · L Ho 1 6.8 1/2
4 3 LUCKY GOLD B C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 5.3 1-1/4
5 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB K C Leung · P C Ng 5 11.0 1-1/2
6 4 BABY B L Ferraris · K H Ting 12 44.0 1-3/4
7 2 FEARLESS FIRE B/XB L Currie · D A Hayes 6 12.0 2-1/4
8 11 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP-/XB H Bowman · D J Hall 11 19.0 2-3/4
9 6 PALACE PAL B C L Chau · T P Yung 9 9.4 3
10 8 SMILING CITY CP H Bentley · D J Whyte 3 17.0 3-1/4
11 10 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 8 4.6 3-1/2
12 12 BELL OF HAPPINESS H/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 7 127.0 3-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER BABY2. SUNNY DELIGHT+0.1L3. PACKING SUCCEEDER+0.5L4. LUCKY GOLD+1.25L5. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+1.5L6. BABY+1.75L7. FEARLESS FIRE+2.25L8. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+2.75L9. PALACE PAL+3L10. SMILING CITY+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LUCKY GOLD (20.8%) finished 4th — the winner SUPER BABY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LUCKY GOLD 20.8% 4.80 4
2 9 SUNNY DELIGHT 13.8% 7.22 2
3 1 SUPER BABY 12.1% 8.26 1
4 10 PERFECT TO GREAT 12.1% 8.27 11
5 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 7.9% 12.61 5
6 6 PALACE PAL 7.6% 13.10 9
7 2 FEARLESS FIRE 7.1% 13.99 7
8 11 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 6.1% 16.40 8
9 7 PACKING SUCCEEDER 4.4% 22.63 3
10 4 BABY 3.9% 25.80 6
11 8 SMILING CITY 3.1% 31.94 10
12 12 BELL OF HAPPINESS 0.9% 113.94 12
LUCKY GOLDSUNNY DELIGHTSUPER BABY — wonPERFECT TO GREATBILLIONAIRE SECRETPALACE PALFEARLESS FIREYEE CHEONG WARRIORPACKING SUCCEEDERBABYSMILING CITYBELL OF HAPPINESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 151

PLACE

1 42

7 33

9 18.5

QUINELLA

1,9 438

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 297

1,9 150

7,9 84.5

FORECAST

1,9 814

TIERCE

1,9,7 12,618

TRIO

1,7,9 1,108

FIRST 4

1,3,7,9 1,758

QUARTET

1,9,7,3 59,725

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 27

A1

5TH DOUBLE

10/1 655.5

10/9 39