Happy Valley · 2023-01-11 · 20:46
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY SOUL, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with CIRCUIT TEN second and SOLAR PARTNER third. The 3.6 favourite SOLAR PARTNER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT 1.10.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 7 | 3.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | CIRCUIT TEN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 8.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | SOLAR PARTNER CP1/TT S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 4 | 3.6 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | LYRICAL MOTION TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 9 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | WOOD ON FIRE V-/H/CP2/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 3 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | SHADOW RUNNER CP-/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 6 | 9.7 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | HAPPY FAT CAT PC A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 5 | 5.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | INSPIRING CITY H- L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 10 | 129.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | FLYING BONUS P- K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 2 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 11 | 54.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | BLUSTITCH B/TT A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 12 | 51.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | HAR HAR AT HEART H Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 8 | 40.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SOLAR PARTNER | 22.4% | 4.46 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 18.5% | 5.42 | 7 |
| 3 | 10 | HAPPY SOUL | 11.7% | 8.53 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | CIRCUIT TEN | 11.0% | 9.06 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | SHADOW RUNNER | 9.5% | 10.56 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | LYRICAL MOTION | 7.6% | 13.18 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | FLYING BONUS | 5.7% | 17.52 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | WOOD ON FIRE | 3.4% | 29.59 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 3.0% | 32.95 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | BLUSTITCH | 3.0% | 33.71 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | HAR HAR AT HEART | 2.7% | 36.88 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | INSPIRING CITY | 1.5% | 65.93 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 38
PLACE
1 24
6 15
10 15.5
QUINELLA
1,10 172.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 60.5
1,10 63
6,10 35
FORECAST
10,1 262
TIERCE
10,1,6 1,298
TRIO
1,6,10 201
FIRST 4
1,4,6,10 435
QUARTET
10,1,6,4 7,702
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,10/1,6,10 16,980
3 PICK 1
A1 31.5
A2 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
2/1 228
2/10 685.5