Happy Valley · 2023-01-11 · 19:46
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HERO STAR, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with RACING FIGHTER second and HIGH CLOUD third. The 4.3 favourite JAZZ STEED finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HERO STAR TT 1.09.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 9 | 7.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | RACING FIGHTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 2 | 9.6 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | HIGH CLOUD CP-/XB/B1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 4 | 4.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 5 | 8.8 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | SURE JOYFUL V R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 8 | 5.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | MELBOURNE HALL B/XB H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 11 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | GALVANIC CP1/XB1 A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 10 | 46.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | FLAMING EAGLE PC/TT C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 3 | 24.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | HAPPY GOLF TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 12 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 | JAZZ STEED B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 4.3 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | GLORIOUS STARLIGHT H L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 7 | 108.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 6 | 31.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HIGH CLOUD | 17.4% | 5.74 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | MELBOURNE HALL | 12.7% | 7.87 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | HERO STAR | 11.6% | 8.64 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | JAZZ STEED | 11.5% | 8.67 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 10.7% | 9.33 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | HAPPY GOLF | 7.5% | 13.41 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | SURE JOYFUL | 6.9% | 14.46 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 6.6% | 15.26 | 12 |
| 9 | 6 | GALVANIC | 6.2% | 16.14 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | RACING FIGHTER | 3.8% | 26.00 | 2 |
| 11 | 11 | FLAMING EAGLE | 2.8% | 35.54 | 8 |
| 12 | 1 | GLORIOUS STARLIGHT | 2.3% | 44.04 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 74.5
PLACE
2 20
3 18.5
4 31.5
QUINELLA
2,4 431
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 75.5
2,4 137.5
3,4 88
FORECAST
2,4 743
TIERCE
2,4,3 4,585
TRIO
2,3,4 620
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 1,173
QUARTET
2,4,3,5 30,359
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,8/2,3,4 35,496
2ND DOUBLE
5/2 361.5
5/4 117.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 21