Happy Valley · 2023-01-11 · 19:16
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-11 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY BABY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with LOYAL AMBITION second and SUPERB DADDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite LOYAL AMBITION finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUNNY BABY Closed strongly CP- 1.49.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 6.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | LOYAL AMBITION Led early V/TT Y L Chung · C Fownes | Y L Chung | C Fownes | 9 | 4.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · Y S Tsui | H Bowman | Y S Tsui | 2 | 7.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | FOXHUNTER WAY C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 5.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | JUBILATION V M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 10 | 6.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 4 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 6 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | CABLE SPEED CP/TT L Currie · C W Chang | L Currie | C W Chang | 11 | 35.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | GO BALLISTIC SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson | L Ferraris | R Gibson | 5 | 16.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 7 | YOUNG EXPLORER Closed strongly B/H K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 12 | 29.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 1 | 8.2 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | THIS IS CHARISMA V/TT L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 7 | 35.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUNNY BABY | 25.5% | 3.92 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | SUPERB DADDY | 12.8% | 7.79 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | JUBILATION | 10.4% | 9.59 | 5 |
| 4 | 8 | LOYAL AMBITION | 10.0% | 9.99 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | OWNERS' STAR | 9.2% | 10.83 | 6 |
| 6 | 10 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 7.3% | 13.69 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 5.9% | 16.95 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | REGENCY MASTER | 4.8% | 20.76 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | CABLE SPEED | 4.1% | 24.67 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | GO BALLISTIC | 3.6% | 27.74 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 3.5% | 28.95 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | YOUNG EXPLORER | 2.8% | 35.14 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 64
PLACE
2 26
5 22
8 19.5
QUINELLA
5,8 160
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 80
2,8 75
5,8 60.5
FORECAST
5,8 330
TIERCE
5,8,2 2,785
TRIO
2,5,8 425
FIRST 4
2,5,8,10 540
QUARTET
5,8,2,10 13,207
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
9/5 273.5
9/8 76.5
3 PICK 1
A2 26
A3 —
A1 —