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Happy Valley · 2023-01-11 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-11 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY BABY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with LOYAL AMBITION second and SUPERB DADDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite LOYAL AMBITION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly CP- 1.49.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 6.4 1-1/2
2 8 LOYAL AMBITION Led early V/TT Y L Chung · C Fownes 9 4.9 1-1/2
3 2 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · Y S Tsui 2 7.2 2
4 10 FOXHUNTER WAY C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 5.8 2-1/2
5 6 JUBILATION V M L Yeung · L Ho 10 6.3 3-1/2
6 3 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · W Y So 4 15.0 3-1/2
7 1 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 21.0 4-3/4
8 12 CABLE SPEED CP/TT L Currie · C W Chang 11 35.0 5-1/4
9 11 GO BALLISTIC SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 5 16.0 6
10 7 YOUNG EXPLORER Closed strongly B/H K C Leung · K H Ting 12 29.0 6-1/2
11 4 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V S De Sousa · C H Yip 1 8.2 8-3/4
12 9 THIS IS CHARISMA V/TT L Hewitson · D J Hall 7 35.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY BABY2. LOYAL AMBITION+1.5L3. SUPERB DADDY+2L4. FOXHUNTER WAY+2.5L5. JUBILATION+3.5L6. OWNERS' STAR+3.5L7. REGENCY MASTER+4.75L8. CABLE SPEED+5.25L9. GO BALLISTIC+6L10. YOUNG EXPLORER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUNNY BABY (25.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SUNNY BABY 25.5% 3.92 1
2 2 SUPERB DADDY 12.8% 7.79 3
3 6 JUBILATION 10.4% 9.59 5
4 8 LOYAL AMBITION 10.0% 9.99 2
5 3 OWNERS' STAR 9.2% 10.83 6
6 10 FOXHUNTER WAY 7.3% 13.69 4
7 4 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 5.9% 16.95 11
8 1 REGENCY MASTER 4.8% 20.76 7
9 12 CABLE SPEED 4.1% 24.67 8
10 11 GO BALLISTIC 3.6% 27.74 9
11 9 THIS IS CHARISMA 3.5% 28.95 12
12 7 YOUNG EXPLORER 2.8% 35.14 10
SUNNY BABY — wonSUPERB DADDYJUBILATIONLOYAL AMBITIONOWNERS' STARFOXHUNTER WAYMURRAY'S PARTNERSREGENCY MASTERCABLE SPEEDGO BALLISTICTHIS IS CHARISMAYOUNG EXPLORER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 64

PLACE

2 26

5 22

8 19.5

QUINELLA

5,8 160

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 80

2,8 75

5,8 60.5

FORECAST

5,8 330

TIERCE

5,8,2 2,785

TRIO

2,5,8 425

FIRST 4

2,5,8,10 540

QUARTET

5,8,2,10 13,207

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/5 273.5

9/8 76.5

3 PICK 1

A2 26

A3

A1