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Happy Valley · 2023-01-11 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly CP- 1.49.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 6.4 1-1/2
2 0 LOYAL AMBITION Led early V/TT Y L Chung · C Fownes 9 4.9 1-1/2
3 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · Y S Tsui 2 7.2 2
4 0 FOXHUNTER WAY C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 5.8 2-1/2
5 0 JUBILATION V M L Yeung · L Ho 10 6.3 3-1/2
6 0 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · W Y So 4 15.0 3-1/2
7 0 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 21.0 4-3/4
8 0 CABLE SPEED CP/TT L Currie · C W Chang 11 35.0 5-1/4
9 0 GO BALLISTIC SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 5 16.0 6
10 0 YOUNG EXPLORER Closed strongly B/H K C Leung · K H Ting 12 29.0 6-1/2
11 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V S De Sousa · C H Yip 1 8.2 8-3/4
12 0 THIS IS CHARISMA V/TT L Hewitson · D J Hall 7 35.0 9-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-11 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY BABY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with LOYAL AMBITION second and SUPERB DADDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite LOYAL AMBITION finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY BABY—2. LOYAL AMBITION+1.5L3. SUPERB DADDY+2L4. FOXHUNTER WAY+2.5L5. JUBILATION+3.5L6. OWNERS' STAR+3.5L7. REGENCY MASTER+4.75L8. CABLE SPEED+5.25L9. GO BALLISTIC+6L10. YOUNG EXPLORER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUNNY BABY (25.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUNNY BABY 25.5% 3.92 1
2 0 SUPERB DADDY 12.8% 7.79 3
3 0 JUBILATION 10.4% 9.59 5
4 0 LOYAL AMBITION 10.0% 9.99 2
5 0 OWNERS' STAR 9.2% 10.83 6
6 0 FOXHUNTER WAY 7.3% 13.69 4
7 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 5.9% 16.95 11
8 0 REGENCY MASTER 4.8% 20.76 7
9 0 CABLE SPEED 4.1% 24.67 8
10 0 GO BALLISTIC 3.6% 27.74 9
11 0 THIS IS CHARISMA 3.5% 28.95 12
12 0 YOUNG EXPLORER 2.8% 35.14 10
SUNNY BABY — wonSUPERB DADDYJUBILATIONLOYAL AMBITIONOWNERS' STARFOXHUNTER WAYMURRAY'S PARTNERSREGENCY MASTERCABLE SPEEDGO BALLISTICTHIS IS CHARISMAYOUNG EXPLORER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 64

PLACE

2 26

5 22

8 19.5

QUINELLA

5,8 160

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 80

2,8 75

5,8 60.5

FORECAST

5,8 330

TIERCE

5,8,2 2,785

TRIO

2,5,8 425

FIRST 4

2,5,8,10 540

QUARTET

5,8,2,10 13,207

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/5 273.5

9/8 76.5

3 PICK 1

A2 26

A3 —

A1 —