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Sha Tin · 2023-01-15 · 13:36

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly XB/V1/TT 1.22.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · J Richards 11 9.6 1/2
2 0 BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly TT Z Purton · J Size 10 5.3 1/2
3 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG Closed strongly TT M F Poon · K L Man 7 4.9 3/4
4 0 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 12 36.0 2-3/4
5 0 ACA POWER Closed strongly H H Bowman · D J Hall 5 3.7 3-1/2
6 0 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 8 59.0 5-1/2
7 0 WINS ALL B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 1 8.1 6-1/2
8 0 SUPER KINGDOM Closed strongly B H Bentley · A T Millard 13 42.0 8-1/4
9 0 BUDDY SPIRIT B A Badel · C H Yip 3 29.0 8-1/2
10 0 THE GOOD DEAL B-/H/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 14 8.1 9
11 0 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR H-/XB C L Chau · T P Yung 4 60.0 10-1/4
12 0 BEST FOR YOU B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 2 17.0 12-1/4
13 0 CALL ME LU Led early V-/TT M L Yeung · L Ho 9 33.0 22
— 0 JACK WIN L Ferraris · A S Cruz — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-15 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ASIAN ONE, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with BEAUTY NOVA second and STAR OF YUEN LONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite ACA POWER finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ASIAN ONE—2. BEAUTY NOVA+0.5L3. STAR OF YUEN LONG+0.75L4. ERNEST FEELING+2.75L5. ACA POWER+3.5L6. EL VALIENTE+5.5L7. WINS ALL+6.5L8. SUPER KINGDOM+8.25L9. BUDDY SPIRIT+8.5L10. THE GOOD DEAL+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY NOVA (22.5%) finished 2nd — the winner ASIAN ONE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY NOVA 22.5% 4.45 2
2 0 ASIAN ONE 11.4% 8.80 1
3 0 ACA POWER 11.2% 8.97 5
4 0 WINS ALL 9.1% 10.96 7
5 0 BUDDY SPIRIT 7.5% 13.26 9
6 0 THE GOOD DEAL 7.2% 13.94 10
7 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG 6.7% 14.99 3
8 0 EL VALIENTE 6.4% 15.72 6
9 0 BEST FOR YOU 5.1% 19.51 12
10 0 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 4.8% 20.82 11
11 0 ERNEST FEELING 3.1% 32.22 4
12 0 SUPER KINGDOM 2.7% 37.08 8
13 0 CALL ME LU 2.4% 41.85 13
BEAUTY NOVAASIAN ONE — wonACA POWERWINS ALLBUDDY SPIRITTHE GOOD DEALSTAR OF YUEN LONGEL VALIENTEBEST FOR YOUCIRCUIT SPLENDORERNEST FEELINGSUPER KINGDOMCALL ME LU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 96.5

PLACE

1 20

4 28

7 19.5

QUINELLA

4,7 218

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 67.5

1,7 66

4,7 80

FORECAST

4,7 476

TIERCE

4,7,1 2,641

TRIO

1,4,7 440

FIRST 4

1,4,7,13 2,810

QUARTET

4,7,1,13 43,998

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 499

2/7 34.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,13/1,4,7 408,371

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 32.5