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Sha Tin · 2023-01-15 · 13:36

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-15 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ASIAN ONE, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with BEAUTY NOVA second and STAR OF YUEN LONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite ACA POWER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.22.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly XB/V1/TT 1.22.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · J Richards 11 9.6 1/2
2 7 BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly TT Z Purton · J Size 10 5.3 1/2
3 1 STAR OF YUEN LONG Closed strongly TT M F Poon · K L Man 7 4.9 3/4
4 13 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 12 36.0 2-3/4
5 3 ACA POWER Closed strongly H H Bowman · D J Hall 5 3.7 3-1/2
6 2 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 8 59.0 5-1/2
7 6 WINS ALL B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 1 8.1 6-1/2
8 9 SUPER KINGDOM Closed strongly B H Bentley · A T Millard 13 42.0 8-1/4
9 12 BUDDY SPIRIT B A Badel · C H Yip 3 29.0 8-1/2
10 11 THE GOOD DEAL B-/H/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 14 8.1 9
11 10 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR H-/XB C L Chau · T P Yung 4 60.0 10-1/4
12 8 BEST FOR YOU B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 2 17.0 12-1/4
13 14 CALL ME LU Led early V-/TT M L Yeung · L Ho 9 33.0 22
5 JACK WIN L Ferraris · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ASIAN ONE2. BEAUTY NOVA+0.5L3. STAR OF YUEN LONG+0.75L4. ERNEST FEELING+2.75L5. ACA POWER+3.5L6. EL VALIENTE+5.5L7. WINS ALL+6.5L8. SUPER KINGDOM+8.25L9. BUDDY SPIRIT+8.5L10. THE GOOD DEAL+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY NOVA (22.5%) finished 2nd — the winner ASIAN ONE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BEAUTY NOVA 22.5% 4.45 2
2 4 ASIAN ONE 11.4% 8.80 1
3 3 ACA POWER 11.2% 8.97 5
4 6 WINS ALL 9.1% 10.96 7
5 12 BUDDY SPIRIT 7.5% 13.26 9
6 11 THE GOOD DEAL 7.2% 13.94 10
7 1 STAR OF YUEN LONG 6.7% 14.99 3
8 2 EL VALIENTE 6.4% 15.72 6
9 8 BEST FOR YOU 5.1% 19.51 12
10 10 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 4.8% 20.82 11
11 13 ERNEST FEELING 3.1% 32.22 4
12 9 SUPER KINGDOM 2.7% 37.08 8
13 14 CALL ME LU 2.4% 41.85 13
BEAUTY NOVAASIAN ONE — wonACA POWERWINS ALLBUDDY SPIRITTHE GOOD DEALSTAR OF YUEN LONGEL VALIENTEBEST FOR YOUCIRCUIT SPLENDORERNEST FEELINGSUPER KINGDOMCALL ME LU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 96.5

PLACE

1 20

4 28

7 19.5

QUINELLA

4,7 218

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 67.5

1,7 66

4,7 80

FORECAST

4,7 476

TIERCE

4,7,1 2,641

TRIO

1,4,7 440

FIRST 4

1,4,7,13 2,810

QUARTET

4,7,1,13 43,998

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 499

2/7 34.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,13/1,4,7 408,371

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 32.5