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Sha Tin · 2023-01-15 · 13:02

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-15 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FIGHTING STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with SPEEDSTAR second and LITTLE PLAYER third. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 FIGHTING STAR B2 1.10.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C H Yip 2 4.0 3/4
2 1 SPEEDSTAR B Y L Chung · D J Hall 6 29.0 3/4
3 13 LITTLE PLAYER B/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 3 26.0 1-1/4
4 9 EUROMISSILE B/XB Z Purton · C W Chang 9 6.6 1-3/4
5 12 ALLOY STAR B H Bentley · T P Yung 4 8.8 2-3/4
6 8 VIVA A LA H/P/TT M L Yeung · L Ho 8 35.0 3
7 3 CHIRON CP/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 5 12.0 4-1/4
8 7 TAKINGUFURTHER V L Ferraris · K H Ting 12 12.0 4-1/4
9 4 COMPULSORY B/TT C L Chau · A T Millard 7 9.4 5-3/4
10 5 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY B/XB K C Leung · R Gibson 14 9.2 7
11 10 PRINCE OF BON BON XB1/B2 M F Poon · Y S Tsui 1 68.0 8-1/2
12 6 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B-/SR2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 16.0 9-1/4
13 14 DASHING GENIUS TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz 13 32.0 13
14 11 TOWARDS SUCCESS XB2/TT K Teetan · W Y So 10 8.5 19

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIGHTING STAR2. SPEEDSTAR+0.75L3. LITTLE PLAYER+1.25L4. EUROMISSILE+1.75L5. ALLOY STAR+2.75L6. VIVA A LA+3L7. CHIRON+4.25L8. TAKINGUFURTHER+4.25L9. COMPULSORY+5.75L10. SUNSHINE LEGENDARY+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FIGHTING STAR (12.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FIGHTING STAR 12.8% 7.79 1
2 9 EUROMISSILE 12.4% 8.08 4
3 13 LITTLE PLAYER 11.2% 8.91 3
4 6 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 9.1% 11.01 12
5 4 COMPULSORY 8.3% 12.11 9
6 5 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY 7.2% 13.89 10
7 11 TOWARDS SUCCESS 6.8% 14.64 14
8 14 DASHING GENIUS 6.8% 14.80 13
9 12 ALLOY STAR 5.5% 18.14 5
10 3 CHIRON 5.4% 18.38 7
11 7 TAKINGUFURTHER 4.9% 20.30 8
12 10 PRINCE OF BON BON 4.7% 21.39 11
13 8 VIVA A LA 3.2% 31.12 6
14 1 SPEEDSTAR 1.7% 60.25 2
FIGHTING STAR — wonEUROMISSILELITTLE PLAYERTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDCOMPULSORYSUNSHINE LEGENDARYTOWARDS SUCCESSDASHING GENIUSALLOY STARCHIRONTAKINGUFURTHERPRINCE OF BON BONVIVA A LASPEEDSTAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 40

PLACE

1 77

2 16.5

13 69.5

QUINELLA

1,2 501

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 167

1,13 1,050.5

2,13 138.5

FORECAST

2,1 676

TIERCE

2,1,13 13,679

TRIO

1,2,13 4,329

FIRST 4

1,2,9,13 7,516

QUARTET

2,1,13,9 128,259

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 25

A2