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Sha Tin · 2023-01-15 · 15:06

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.23.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 D STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.23.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 17.0 HD
2 0 JOYFUL GENIUS Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 7 4.6 HD
3 0 SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly H/TT L Currie · J Richards 10 6.2 3/4
4 0 SPLENDID LIVING Led early TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 12 6.4 1-1/2
5 0 OWNERS' PRAISE Closed strongly K C Leung · W Y So 2 10.0 1-3/4
6 0 SPEED FAY FAY B L Ferraris · A T Millard 1 10.0 2
7 0 DURHAM STAR Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 19.0 2-1/4
8 0 UNPRESUMING B1 A Badel · J Size 6 13.0 2-1/2
9 0 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum 4 5.4 3-1/4
10 0 FIRE BALL R Maia · C H Yip 14 23.0 4-3/4
11 0 CALL ME TEDDY PC-/TT H Bowman · C W Chang 8 54.0 5-3/4
12 0 KA YING GLORIOUS Closed strongly CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 113.0 6
13 0 NUNCHUKS TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 23.0 7-1/4
14 0 FLYING SWORD B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 11 60.0 7-1/2
— 0 MILLENNIUM FALCON C L Chau · T P Yung — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-15 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. D STAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with JOYFUL GENIUS second and SIXTH GENERATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite JOYFUL GENIUS finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. D STAR—2. JOYFUL GENIUS+0.2L3. SIXTH GENERATION+0.75L4. SPLENDID LIVING+1.5L5. OWNERS' PRAISE+1.75L6. SPEED FAY FAY+2L7. DURHAM STAR+2.25L8. UNPRESUMING+2.5L9. HORSESAIN BOLT+3.25L10. FIRE BALL+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JOYFUL GENIUS (21.6%) finished 2nd — the winner D STAR was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 JOYFUL GENIUS 21.6% 4.62 2
2 0 HORSESAIN BOLT 10.4% 9.64 9
3 0 DURHAM STAR 8.9% 11.19 7
4 0 OWNERS' PRAISE 8.9% 11.21 5
5 0 SIXTH GENERATION 7.5% 13.38 3
6 0 SPEED FAY FAY 7.2% 13.85 6
7 0 NUNCHUKS 6.7% 14.87 13
8 0 UNPRESUMING 6.1% 16.30 8
9 0 FIRE BALL 5.6% 17.81 10
10 0 SPLENDID LIVING 5.2% 19.16 4
11 0 D STAR 4.6% 21.67 1
12 0 CALL ME TEDDY 3.7% 26.69 11
13 0 FLYING SWORD 2.6% 38.21 14
14 0 KA YING GLORIOUS 0.8% 131.53 12
JOYFUL GENIUSHORSESAIN BOLTDURHAM STAROWNERS' PRAISESIXTH GENERATIONSPEED FAY FAYNUNCHUKSUNPRESUMINGFIRE BALLSPLENDID LIVINGD STAR — wonCALL ME TEDDYFLYING SWORDKA YING GLORIOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 176.5

PLACE

9 46

12 17

14 27

QUINELLA

9,12 433

QUINELLA PLACE

9,12 157

9,14 213

12,14 68

FORECAST

9,12 797

TIERCE

9,12,14 9,291

TRIO

9,12,14 1,116

FIRST 4

9,12,13,14 1,311

QUARTET

9,12,14,13 49,237

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 21.5

A1 —

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE

8/9 21,716

8/12 1,819.5