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Sha Tin · 2023-01-15 · 15:06

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-15 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. D STAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with JOYFUL GENIUS second and SIXTH GENERATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite JOYFUL GENIUS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.23.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 D STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.23.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 17.0 HD
2 12 JOYFUL GENIUS Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 7 4.6 HD
3 14 SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly H/TT L Currie · J Richards 10 6.2 3/4
4 13 SPLENDID LIVING Led early TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 12 6.4 1-1/2
5 7 OWNERS' PRAISE Closed strongly K C Leung · W Y So 2 10.0 1-3/4
6 11 SPEED FAY FAY B L Ferraris · A T Millard 1 10.0 2
7 4 DURHAM STAR Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 19.0 2-1/4
8 2 UNPRESUMING B1 A Badel · J Size 6 13.0 2-1/2
9 1 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum 4 5.4 3-1/4
10 10 FIRE BALL R Maia · C H Yip 14 23.0 4-3/4
11 3 CALL ME TEDDY PC-/TT H Bowman · C W Chang 8 54.0 5-3/4
12 8 KA YING GLORIOUS Closed strongly CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 113.0 6
13 5 NUNCHUKS TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 23.0 7-1/4
14 6 FLYING SWORD B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 11 60.0 7-1/2
0 MILLENNIUM FALCON C L Chau · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. D STAR2. JOYFUL GENIUS+0.2L3. SIXTH GENERATION+0.75L4. SPLENDID LIVING+1.5L5. OWNERS' PRAISE+1.75L6. SPEED FAY FAY+2L7. DURHAM STAR+2.25L8. UNPRESUMING+2.5L9. HORSESAIN BOLT+3.25L10. FIRE BALL+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JOYFUL GENIUS (21.6%) finished 2nd — the winner D STAR was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 JOYFUL GENIUS 21.6% 4.62 2
2 1 HORSESAIN BOLT 10.4% 9.64 9
3 4 DURHAM STAR 8.9% 11.19 7
4 7 OWNERS' PRAISE 8.9% 11.21 5
5 14 SIXTH GENERATION 7.5% 13.38 3
6 11 SPEED FAY FAY 7.2% 13.85 6
7 5 NUNCHUKS 6.7% 14.87 13
8 2 UNPRESUMING 6.1% 16.30 8
9 10 FIRE BALL 5.6% 17.81 10
10 13 SPLENDID LIVING 5.2% 19.16 4
11 9 D STAR 4.6% 21.67 1
12 3 CALL ME TEDDY 3.7% 26.69 11
13 6 FLYING SWORD 2.6% 38.21 14
14 8 KA YING GLORIOUS 0.8% 131.53 12
JOYFUL GENIUSHORSESAIN BOLTDURHAM STAROWNERS' PRAISESIXTH GENERATIONSPEED FAY FAYNUNCHUKSUNPRESUMINGFIRE BALLSPLENDID LIVINGD STAR — wonCALL ME TEDDYFLYING SWORDKA YING GLORIOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 176.5

PLACE

9 46

12 17

14 27

QUINELLA

9,12 433

QUINELLA PLACE

9,12 157

9,14 213

12,14 68

FORECAST

9,12 797

TIERCE

9,12,14 9,291

TRIO

9,12,14 1,116

FIRST 4

9,12,13,14 1,311

QUARTET

9,12,14,13 49,237

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 21.5

A1

A2

4TH DOUBLE

8/9 21,716

8/12 1,819.5