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Sha Tin · 2023-01-15 · 14:36

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FUN TOGETHER, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with VICTORY SCHOLARS second and UNIVERSAL HORIZON third. The 1.7 favourite MULTISUPER finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.10.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 FUN TOGETHER TT1 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 5 143.0 SH
2 4 VICTORY SCHOLARS V Y L Chung · C Fownes 2 8.4 SH
3 2 UNIVERSAL HORIZON C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 11.0 N
4 13 SUPER HIGHWAY H/V/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 8 8.2 N
5 10 TOGEPI L Ferraris · A T Millard 6 50.0 1-1/2
6 12 TIMESTORM XB/TT H Bowman · D J Hall 7 20.0 2
7 3 MULTISUPER Z Purton · P F Yiu 3 1.7 2-1/4
8 14 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 9 58.0 2-3/4
9 6 DENFIELD TT1 S De Sousa · C S Shum 4 6.4 3-1/2
10 11 ORIENTAL SPIRIT CP L Hewitson · D A Hayes 14 155.0 3-1/2
11 1 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 13 36.0 9-1/4
12 5 AUGUST MOON V/TT L Currie · J Richards 10 95.0 11
13 7 FAITHFUL CHAMPION H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 1 161.0 16-1/4
14 9 HAPPY HORSE H1/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 12 254.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FUN TOGETHER2. VICTORY SCHOLARS+0.1L3. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+0.05L4. SUPER HIGHWAY+0.05L5. TOGEPI+1.5L6. TIMESTORM+2L7. MULTISUPER+2.25L8. DOUBLE SHOW+2.75L9. DENFIELD+3.5L10. ORIENTAL SPIRIT+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MULTISUPER (41.7%) finished 7th — the winner FUN TOGETHER was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 MULTISUPER 41.7% 2.40 7
2 4 VICTORY SCHOLARS 11.0% 9.10 2
3 2 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 10.8% 9.28 3
4 13 SUPER HIGHWAY 10.4% 9.62 4
5 6 DENFIELD 7.8% 12.89 9
6 12 TIMESTORM 5.0% 19.85 6
7 14 DOUBLE SHOW 3.0% 32.90 8
8 1 PINS PRINCE 2.8% 35.46 11
9 11 ORIENTAL SPIRIT 2.8% 36.06 10
10 5 AUGUST MOON 1.4% 72.20 12
11 8 FUN TOGETHER 1.2% 81.94 1
12 10 TOGEPI 1.1% 87.78 5
13 7 FAITHFUL CHAMPION 0.5% 192.26 13
14 9 HAPPY HORSE 0.5% 203.25 14
MULTISUPERVICTORY SCHOLARSUNIVERSAL HORIZONSUPER HIGHWAYDENFIELDTIMESTORMDOUBLE SHOWPINS PRINCEORIENTAL SPIRITAUGUST MOONFUN TOGETHER — wonTOGEPIFAITHFUL CHAMPIONHAPPY HORSE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 1,439.5

PLACE

2 45.5

4 19.5

8 169.5

QUINELLA

4,8 2,374.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 133

2,8 1,448.5

4,8 565.5

FORECAST

8,4 4,915

TIERCE

8,4,2 81,936

TRIO

2,4,8 10,315

FIRST 4

2,4,8,13 12,265

QUARTET

8,4,2,13 378,995

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,5/2,4,8 476,107

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 54.5

3RD DOUBLE

5/4 36

5/8 3,723