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Sha Tin · 2023-01-15 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NOT USUAL STAR, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with MARK THE MOMENT second and NABOO LEGEND third. The 2.1 favourite GOLDEN EXPRESS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 NOT USUAL STAR H/TT 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · W Y So 8 68.0 SH
2 2 MARK THE MOMENT V/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 12 23.0 SH
3 3 NABOO LEGEND H Bowman · D A Hayes 3 46.0 1/2
4 1 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B H Bentley · D J Whyte 7 10.0 1/2
5 6 GOLDEN EXPRESS S De Sousa · J Size 10 2.1 3/4
6 5 READY TO WIN CP/XB/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 11 18.0 1
7 8 PULSAR STRIDER C L Chau · T P Yung 5 10.0 1
8 13 BRAVE STAR XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 8.6 2-1/4
9 9 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 10.0 3-1/4
10 11 DRAGON ADMIRAL XB-/H/SR1 R Maia · R Gibson 4 97.0 3-1/4
11 7 CRYSTAL POWERFUL M F Poon · C S Shum 14 153.0 4-1/2
12 12 DREAM PURSUER Z Purton · K L Man 1 5.3 5-1/4
13 14 CHARMANDER B/XB/TT A Badel · J Richards 9 131.0 5-1/4
14 10 MAGIC PHOENIX TT L Currie · K H Ting 13 163.0 5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NOT USUAL STAR2. MARK THE MOMENT+0.1L3. NABOO LEGEND+0.5L4. MAJESTIC KNIGHT+0.5L5. GOLDEN EXPRESS+0.75L6. READY TO WIN+1L7. PULSAR STRIDER+1L8. BRAVE STAR+2.25L9. CALIFORNIA VANES+3.25L10. DRAGON ADMIRAL+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick DREAM PURSUER (27.1%) finished 12th — the winner NOT USUAL STAR was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 DREAM PURSUER 27.1% 3.69 12
2 6 GOLDEN EXPRESS 24.4% 4.10 5
3 13 BRAVE STAR 9.4% 10.64 8
4 8 PULSAR STRIDER 8.0% 12.49 7
5 1 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 6.5% 15.42 4
6 2 MARK THE MOMENT 5.7% 17.52 2
7 9 CALIFORNIA VANES 5.0% 20.00 9
8 5 READY TO WIN 4.0% 24.96 6
9 4 NOT USUAL STAR 3.1% 32.39 1
10 3 NABOO LEGEND 2.5% 39.76 3
11 14 CHARMANDER 1.3% 76.14 13
12 10 MAGIC PHOENIX 1.1% 90.38 14
13 11 DRAGON ADMIRAL 1.0% 101.06 10
14 7 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 0.9% 108.94 11
DREAM PURSUERGOLDEN EXPRESSBRAVE STARPULSAR STRIDERMAJESTIC KNIGHTMARK THE MOMENTCALIFORNIA VANESREADY TO WINNOT USUAL STAR — wonNABOO LEGENDCHARMANDERMAGIC PHOENIXDRAGON ADMIRALCRYSTAL POWERFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 684.5

PLACE

2 65

3 106.5

4 116

QUINELLA

2,4 5,312

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 831.5

2,4 680.5

3,4 1,511.5

FORECAST

4,2 11,919

TIERCE

4,2,3 98,256

TRIO

2,3,4 13,139

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 10,925

QUARTET

4,2,3,1 348,537

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 38.5

A2

A1

8TH DOUBLE

4/2 202.5

4/4 2,383