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Sha Tin · 2023-01-21 · 14:18

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ADEFILL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/2, with STAND UP second and SON PAK FU third. The 3.7 favourite STAND UP finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 ADEFILL CP 1.08.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 5 8.4 1-1/2
2 2 STAND UP H Bowman · F C Lor 12 3.7 1-1/2
3 11 SON PAK FU B-/BO2 C L Chau · T P Yung 3 11.0 2
4 5 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 11 10.0 2-1/4
5 3 SHINING FORTUNE B-/XB1/PC2 Z Purton · J Size 8 5.3 2-1/2
6 10 INSPIRING CITY A Badel · D A Hayes 9 115.0 4
7 8 TURBO POWER B-/PC1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 4.9 4-1/2
8 12 TELECOM MISSILE B/TT V Borges · C Fownes 4 37.0 4-1/2
9 1 SERGEANT PEPPER H Bentley · Y S Tsui 6 27.0 6
10 7 SUPER FAST DRAGON CP1/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 7 18.0 6-1/4
11 4 FLYING BONUS P2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 1 9.4 9-1/2
12 6 CALIFORNIA FOREST B/H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 10 47.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ADEFILL2. STAND UP+1.5L3. SON PAK FU+2L4. MAGIC SUPREME+2.25L5. SHINING FORTUNE+2.5L6. INSPIRING CITY+4L7. TURBO POWER+4.5L8. TELECOM MISSILE+4.5L9. SERGEANT PEPPER+6L10. SUPER FAST DRAGON+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick STAND UP (17.9%) finished 2nd — the winner ADEFILL was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 STAND UP 17.9% 5.57 2
2 8 TURBO POWER 16.7% 5.97 7
3 3 SHINING FORTUNE 11.3% 8.85 5
4 9 ADEFILL 10.7% 9.35 1
5 11 SON PAK FU 8.6% 11.58 3
6 5 MAGIC SUPREME 6.4% 15.60 4
7 7 SUPER FAST DRAGON 6.1% 16.52 10
8 1 SERGEANT PEPPER 5.9% 17.05 9
9 4 FLYING BONUS 5.5% 18.25 11
10 12 TELECOM MISSILE 5.4% 18.54 8
11 6 CALIFORNIA FOREST 3.4% 29.84 12
12 10 INSPIRING CITY 2.1% 47.01 6
STAND UPTURBO POWERSHINING FORTUNEADEFILL — wonSON PAK FUMAGIC SUPREMESUPER FAST DRAGONSERGEANT PEPPERFLYING BONUSTELECOM MISSILECALIFORNIA FORESTINSPIRING CITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 84.5

PLACE

2 16.5

9 24

11 36.5

QUINELLA

2,9 141.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 54

2,11 96

9,11 144.5

FORECAST

9,2 462

TIERCE

9,2,11 4,039

TRIO

2,9,11 443

FIRST 4

2,5,9,11 1,434

QUARTET

9,2,11,5 28,165

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 27

A2

4TH DOUBLE

2/2 39

2/9 268.5