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Sha Tin · 2023-01-21 · 13:46

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-21 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY TRIO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with LITTLE PLAYER second and FELIX THE KING third. The 4.6 favourite M M JOHNNY finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.10.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HAPPY TRIO SR 1.10.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 6.1 SH
2 12 LITTLE PLAYER B/XB/TT S De Sousa · J Richards 2 5.6 SH
3 8 FELIX THE KING CP-/B1/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 39.0 1-1/2
4 5 ENCORE TT M F Poon · C S Shum 1 19.0 1-1/2
5 14 RAGING BLAZE TT A Badel · J Size 8 11.0 2
6 13 ALLOY STAR B L Hewitson · T P Yung 12 12.0 2-1/2
7 9 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR XB C L Chau · T P Yung 10 22.0 2-3/4
8 4 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT H Bowman · W Y So 4 5.2 3
9 3 M M JOHNNY B Z Purton · K L Man 9 4.6 3
10 7 FANTASY SPRING B- V Borges · Y S Tsui 11 21.0 5
11 6 YEE CHEONG BRAVE H2/TT- R Maia · A T Millard 6 73.0 5-1/4
12 11 BUDDY SPIRIT B-/V1 H N Wong · C H Yip 13 139.0 6-1/4
13 10 BOOMING WELL B H Bentley · C H Yip 14 13.0 6-3/4
14 1 EASY LIFE B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 7 32.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY TRIO2. LITTLE PLAYER+0.1L3. FELIX THE KING+1.5L4. ENCORE+1.5L5. RAGING BLAZE+2L6. ALLOY STAR+2.5L7. CIRCUIT SPLENDOR+2.75L8. STRIVE FOR GLORY+3L9. M M JOHNNY+3L10. FANTASY SPRING+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick M M JOHNNY (27.0%) finished 9th — the winner HAPPY TRIO was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 M M JOHNNY 27.0% 3.70 9
2 12 LITTLE PLAYER 11.8% 8.48 2
3 4 STRIVE FOR GLORY 8.6% 11.68 8
4 14 RAGING BLAZE 8.4% 11.87 5
5 5 ENCORE 8.2% 12.23 4
6 6 YEE CHEONG BRAVE 7.3% 13.67 11
7 2 HAPPY TRIO 7.2% 13.82 1
8 13 ALLOY STAR 6.4% 15.67 6
9 10 BOOMING WELL 3.6% 28.08 13
10 8 FELIX THE KING 2.7% 37.28 3
11 9 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 2.4% 41.45 7
12 11 BUDDY SPIRIT 2.3% 43.83 12
13 1 EASY LIFE 2.2% 46.27 14
14 7 FANTASY SPRING 2.0% 50.75 10
M M JOHNNYLITTLE PLAYERSTRIVE FOR GLORYRAGING BLAZEENCOREYEE CHEONG BRAVEHAPPY TRIO — wonALLOY STARBOOMING WELLFELIX THE KINGCIRCUIT SPLENDORBUDDY SPIRITEASY LIFEFANTASY SPRING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 61

PLACE

2 21

8 93.5

12 26

QUINELLA

2,12 211

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 367

2,12 76.5

8,12 498.5

FORECAST

2,12 397

TIERCE

2,12,8 8,085

TRIO

2,8,12 2,449

FIRST 4

2,5,8,12 6,012

QUARTET

2,12,8,5 97,706

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,7/2,8,12 71,000

3 PICK 1

A1 26

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE

6/2 117.5

6/12 24