Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-01-21 · 15:53

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-21 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BULLETPROOF, ridden by R Maia and trained by P F Yiu, won by NOSE, with GOLDEN BULL second and RUN RUN BUDDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite FORERUNNER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BULLETPROOF Closed strongly V 1.22.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · P F Yiu 13 111.0 NOSE
2 5 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum 12 14.0 NOSE
3 10 RUN RUN BUDDY Closed strongly CP Z Purton · F C Lor 2 5.5 1-1/4
4 2 FORERUNNER Closed strongly H Bowman · T P Yung 4 2.6 1-1/4
5 13 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly BO-/XB- H T Mo · D J Hall 8 46.0 1-3/4
6 12 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B A Badel · D A Hayes 6 9.0 2
7 3 THE HULK Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 19.0 2-1/2
8 9 ROMANTIC LAOS TT C L Chau · J Richards 1 15.0 3-1/2
9 4 HELENE WISDOM STAR B/H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 5 9.3 3-3/4
10 7 YOUNG VICTORY TT L Hewitson · W Y So 3 8.9 6
11 6 KASI FARASI Closed strongly S De Sousa · C H Yip 14 50.0 6-1/4
12 8 GANG OF BROTHERS V H Bentley · P C Ng 10 25.0 6-1/2
13 14 SMILING MOON CP-/B1 H N Wong · K H Ting 11 242.0 22-3/4
14 11 VANQUISHER Led early SR1/TT1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 23.0 70-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULLETPROOF2. GOLDEN BULL+0.05L3. RUN RUN BUDDY+1.25L4. FORERUNNER+1.25L5. GALLANT HERO+1.75L6. STRONGEST BOY+2L7. THE HULK+2.5L8. ROMANTIC LAOS+3.5L9. HELENE WISDOM STAR+3.75L10. YOUNG VICTORY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RUN RUN BUDDY (30.0%) finished 3rd — the winner BULLETPROOF was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 RUN RUN BUDDY 30.0% 3.33 3
2 2 FORERUNNER 19.7% 5.09 4
3 5 GOLDEN BULL 7.0% 14.19 2
4 3 THE HULK 6.7% 14.89 7
5 11 VANQUISHER 6.5% 15.49 14
6 7 YOUNG VICTORY 6.4% 15.61 10
7 4 HELENE WISDOM STAR 5.7% 17.67 9
8 12 STRONGEST BOY 4.2% 23.74 6
9 6 KASI FARASI 3.6% 27.42 11
10 13 GALLANT HERO 3.2% 31.05 5
11 9 ROMANTIC LAOS 2.5% 39.81 8
12 8 GANG OF BROTHERS 2.5% 40.79 12
13 1 BULLETPROOF 1.4% 70.71 1
14 14 SMILING MOON 0.6% 170.76 13
RUN RUN BUDDYFORERUNNERGOLDEN BULLTHE HULKVANQUISHERYOUNG VICTORYHELENE WISDOM STARSTRONGEST BOYKASI FARASIGALLANT HEROROMANTIC LAOSGANG OF BROTHERSBULLETPROOF — wonSMILING MOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 1,115.5

PLACE

1 214.5

5 37

10 22

QUINELLA

1,5 5,895

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 1,772.5

1,10 955.5

5,10 133.5

FORECAST

1,5 12,643

TIERCE

1,5,10 109,050

TRIO

1,5,10 11,362

FIRST 4

1,2,5,10 5,123

QUARTET

1,5,10,2 227,297

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 25.5

A1

A2

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,9/1,5,10 1,428,279

7TH DOUBLE

9/1 5,107.5

9/5 155