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Sha Tin · 2023-01-21 · 15:53

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BULLETPROOF Closed strongly V 1.22.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · P F Yiu 13 111.0 NOSE
2 0 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum 12 14.0 NOSE
3 0 RUN RUN BUDDY Closed strongly CP Z Purton · F C Lor 2 5.5 1-1/4
5 0 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly BO-/XB- H T Mo · D J Hall 8 46.0 1-3/4
6 0 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B A Badel · D A Hayes 6 9.0 2
7 0 THE HULK Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 19.0 2-1/2
9 0 HELENE WISDOM STAR B/H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 5 9.3 3-3/4
10 0 YOUNG VICTORY TT L Hewitson · W Y So 3 8.9 6
11 0 KASI FARASI Closed strongly S De Sousa · C H Yip 14 50.0 6-1/4
12 0 GANG OF BROTHERS V H Bentley · P C Ng 10 25.0 6-1/2
13 0 SMILING MOON CP-/B1 H N Wong · K H Ting 11 242.0 22-3/4
14 0 VANQUISHER Led early SR1/TT1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 23.0 70-3/4
— 0 FORERUNNER Closed strongly H Bowman · T P Yung — 2.6 1-1/4
— 0 ROMANTIC LAOS TT C L Chau · J Richards — 15.0 3-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-21 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BULLETPROOF, ridden by R Maia and trained by P F Yiu, won by NOSE, with GOLDEN BULL second and RUN RUN BUDDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite FORERUNNER did not finish.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULLETPROOF—2. GOLDEN BULL+0.05L3. RUN RUN BUDDY+1.25L5. GALLANT HERO+1.75L6. STRONGEST BOY+2L7. THE HULK+2.5L9. HELENE WISDOM STAR+3.75L10. YOUNG VICTORY+6L11. KASI FARASI+6.25L12. GANG OF BROTHERS+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RUN RUN BUDDY (30.0%) finished 3rd — the winner BULLETPROOF was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RUN RUN BUDDY 30.0% 3.33 3
2 0 FORERUNNER 19.7% 5.09 —
3 0 GOLDEN BULL 7.0% 14.19 2
4 0 THE HULK 6.7% 14.89 7
5 0 VANQUISHER 6.5% 15.49 14
6 0 YOUNG VICTORY 6.4% 15.61 10
7 0 HELENE WISDOM STAR 5.7% 17.67 9
8 0 STRONGEST BOY 4.2% 23.74 6
9 0 KASI FARASI 3.6% 27.42 11
10 0 GALLANT HERO 3.2% 31.05 5
11 0 ROMANTIC LAOS 2.5% 39.81 —
12 0 GANG OF BROTHERS 2.5% 40.79 12
13 0 BULLETPROOF 1.4% 70.71 1
14 0 SMILING MOON 0.6% 170.76 13
RUN RUN BUDDYFORERUNNERGOLDEN BULLTHE HULKVANQUISHERYOUNG VICTORYHELENE WISDOM STARSTRONGEST BOYKASI FARASIGALLANT HEROROMANTIC LAOSGANG OF BROTHERSBULLETPROOF — wonSMILING MOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 1,115.5

PLACE

1 214.5

5 37

10 22

QUINELLA

1,5 5,895

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 1,772.5

1,10 955.5

5,10 133.5

FORECAST

1,5 12,643

TIERCE

1,5,10 109,050

TRIO

1,5,10 11,362

FIRST 4

1,2,5,10 5,123

QUARTET

1,5,10,2 227,297

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 25.5

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,9/1,5,10 1,428,279

7TH DOUBLE

9/1 5,107.5

9/5 155