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Sha Tin · 2023-01-21 · 17:03

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-21 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY ETERNAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1, with YOUTHFUL DEAL second and MAGNIAC third. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 BEAUTY ETERNAL 1.08.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 12 1.5 1
2 11 YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 2 5.7 1
3 7 MAGNIAC V1 S De Sousa · J Richards 1 9.7 1-1/2
4 10 WONDER KIT L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 35.0 2-1/2
5 8 HYPER DRAGON BALL V Borges · T P Yung 4 50.0 3
6 6 LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB A Hamelin · F C Lor 10 62.0 3
7 5 SCIENCE PATCH V A Badel · P C Ng 8 25.0 3-1/2
8 2 CAPE BRETON SR1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 19.0 4-1/4
9 1 JUMBO FORTUNE H Bowman · C Fownes 7 21.0 5-1/4
10 3 LIKE THAT V C L Chau · F C Lor 9 55.0 7-1/2
11 9 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 109.0 10-1/4
12 12 CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 13 53.0 11
13 13 WORLD FAMOUS B H T Mo · P F Yiu 6 66.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY ETERNAL2. YOUTHFUL DEAL+1L3. MAGNIAC+1.5L4. WONDER KIT+2.5L5. HYPER DRAGON BALL+3L6. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+3L7. SCIENCE PATCH+3.5L8. CAPE BRETON+4.25L9. JUMBO FORTUNE+5.25L10. LIKE THAT+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY ETERNAL (31.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BEAUTY ETERNAL 31.2% 3.21 1
2 11 YOUTHFUL DEAL 18.8% 5.33 2
3 1 JUMBO FORTUNE 7.7% 12.95 9
4 7 MAGNIAC 7.2% 13.94 3
5 2 CAPE BRETON 6.3% 15.93 8
6 5 SCIENCE PATCH 6.2% 16.10 7
7 6 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 5.6% 17.86 6
8 10 WONDER KIT 5.5% 18.32 4
9 12 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 4.0% 25.02 12
10 3 LIKE THAT 2.5% 39.26 10
11 13 WORLD FAMOUS 2.4% 42.09 13
12 8 HYPER DRAGON BALL 1.9% 53.84 5
13 9 TEAM SPIRIT 0.9% 114.92 11
BEAUTY ETERNAL — wonYOUTHFUL DEALJUMBO FORTUNEMAGNIACCAPE BRETONSCIENCE PATCHLUCKY ARCHANGELWONDER KITCALIFORNIA CONCORDLIKE THATWORLD FAMOUSHYPER DRAGON BALLTEAM SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 15

PLACE

4 10.1

7 23.5

11 16

QUINELLA

4,11 36.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 28.5

4,11 18.5

7,11 59.5

FORECAST

4,11 49

TIERCE

4,11,7 228

TRIO

4,7,11 75

FIRST 4

4,7,10,11 303

QUARTET

4,11,7,10 2,299

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 13

A2

A3

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,13/4,7,11 86,527

9TH DOUBLE

4/4 26

4/11 26

SIX UP

2,9/5,6/4,9/1,5/2,4/4,11 3,229

9/5/9/1/4/4 2,703,792

1 [Z Purton]

6 [P F Yiu]

TREBLE

1/4/4 5,385

1/4/11 4,261