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Sha Tin · 2023-01-21 · 14:51

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-21 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHING, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/2, with FLYING MOJITO second and EZRA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite FLYING MOJITO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CHING Closed strongly 1.35.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C W Chang 8 3.1 1-1/2
2 6 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly XB/CP1 Z Purton · D J Hall 4 2.4 1-1/2
3 9 EZRA Closed strongly B L Ferraris · A T Millard 7 24.0 2-3/4
4 7 MACH TEN Closed strongly CP1 R Maia · P F Yiu 10 55.0 6-1/2
5 8 ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 5.9 6-3/4
6 11 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly B2 A Hamelin · T P Yung 5 14.0 7
7 3 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP/XB S De Sousa · P C Ng 11 12.0 7
8 2 DEAR SIBLING Closed strongly B C L Chau · K L Man 6 91.0 7-1/2
9 1 OSCAR GLORY V-/B1 M F Poon · F C Lor 2 15.0 11-1/2
10 4 MISSION BRAVO B/H/TT K H Chan · K H Ting 12 128.0 12-3/4
11 10 GENERAL ACE Led early CP1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 52.0 16-1/4
12 12 MIGHTY STAR B/H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 9 176.0 22

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHING2. FLYING MOJITO+1.5L3. EZRA+2.75L4. MACH TEN+6.5L5. ONE HEART ONE+6.75L6. DRAGON PRIDE+7L7. TURQUOISE ALPHA+7L8. DEAR SIBLING+7.5L9. OSCAR GLORY+11.5L10. MISSION BRAVO+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING MOJITO (29.8%) finished 2nd — the winner CHING was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 FLYING MOJITO 29.8% 3.36 2
2 5 CHING 17.1% 5.86 1
3 8 ONE HEART ONE 13.1% 7.64 5
4 1 OSCAR GLORY 11.0% 9.07 9
5 3 TURQUOISE ALPHA 8.5% 11.82 7
6 11 DRAGON PRIDE 6.6% 15.17 6
7 9 EZRA 4.3% 23.26 3
8 4 MISSION BRAVO 2.9% 34.95 10
9 7 MACH TEN 2.5% 39.37 4
10 10 GENERAL ACE 1.7% 59.40 11
11 2 DEAR SIBLING 1.4% 72.40 8
12 12 MIGHTY STAR 1.2% 80.64 12
FLYING MOJITOCHING — wonONE HEART ONEOSCAR GLORYTURQUOISE ALPHADRAGON PRIDEEZRAMISSION BRAVOMACH TENGENERAL ACEDEAR SIBLINGMIGHTY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 31.5

PLACE

5 13

6 12

9 44

QUINELLA

5,6 38

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 20.5

5,9 139

6,9 114

FORECAST

5,6 90

TIERCE

5,6,9 1,079

TRIO

5,6,9 295

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 1,649

QUARTET

5,6,9,7 18,595

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 13.5

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,11/5,6,9 17,370

5TH DOUBLE

9/5 231.5

9/6 48.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,8,12/2,9,11/5,6,9 5,333,163

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,8,12/2,9,11/Any Combination 15,198