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Sha Tin · 2023-02-19 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-19 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE MASTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by SH, with GIVE WAY PLEASE second and FORTUNE MARBO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly B/XB/TT 1.22.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 2 3.6 SH
2 13 GIVE WAY PLEASE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 14 9.0 SH
3 12 FORTUNE MARBO Closed strongly B2/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 10 22.0 1-1/4
4 11 SMART COUSIN Closed strongly B1 V Borges · C H Yip 1 16.0 1-3/4
5 7 VIVA A LA Closed strongly H/P/TT M Chadwick · L Ho 8 30.0 2-1/4
6 8 APEX TOP B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 5.7 2-1/4
7 6 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · R Gibson 5 4.3 4-1/2
8 4 MIGHTY STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 13 83.0 5-1/2
9 14 TRAVEL GLORY Closed strongly B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 9 33.0 6
10 5 SMART FOLKS Led early B/SR S De Sousa · C W Chang 12 6.6 6-1/4
11 3 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly V C Wong · C Fownes 7 63.0 6-3/4
12 1 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO B/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 6 29.0 7-1/2
13 9 SUPER KINGDOM B H T Mo · A T Millard 3 69.0 9
14 2 SEATOSKY CP-/V1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 40.0 20

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE MASTER2. GIVE WAY PLEASE+0.1L3. FORTUNE MARBO+1.25L4. SMART COUSIN+1.75L5. VIVA A LA+2.25L6. APEX TOP+2.25L7. ERNEST FEELING+4.5L8. MIGHTY STAR+5.5L9. TRAVEL GLORY+6L10. SMART FOLKS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FORTUNE MASTER (29.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 FORTUNE MASTER 29.8% 3.36 1
2 5 SMART FOLKS 13.1% 7.61 10
3 6 ERNEST FEELING 8.5% 11.78 7
4 12 FORTUNE MARBO 7.1% 14.11 3
5 11 SMART COUSIN 5.9% 16.82 4
6 13 GIVE WAY PLEASE 5.9% 17.09 2
7 1 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO 5.8% 17.33 12
8 3 DAILY BEAUTY 4.9% 20.52 11
9 2 SEATOSKY 4.7% 21.45 14
10 8 APEX TOP 4.1% 24.14 6
11 14 TRAVEL GLORY 3.8% 26.52 9
12 7 VIVA A LA 2.5% 40.33 5
13 9 SUPER KINGDOM 2.4% 40.90 13
14 4 MIGHTY STAR 1.6% 63.51 8
FORTUNE MASTER — wonSMART FOLKSERNEST FEELINGFORTUNE MARBOSMART COUSINGIVE WAY PLEASECIRCUIT SPIRITANTODAILY BEAUTYSEATOSKYAPEX TOPTRAVEL GLORYVIVA A LASUPER KINGDOMMIGHTY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 36

PLACE

10 17

12 51.5

13 35.5

QUINELLA

10,13 206.5

QUINELLA PLACE

10,12 134

10,13 91

12,13 263

FORECAST

10,13 371

TIERCE

10,13,12 4,039

TRIO

10,12,13 1,181

FIRST 4

10,11,12,13 2,190

QUARTET

10,13,12,11 31,980

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19.5

A2