Sha Tin · 2023-02-19 · 13:01
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-19 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE MASTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by SH, with GIVE WAY PLEASE second and FORTUNE MARBO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly B/XB/TT 1.22.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 2 | 3.6 | SH |
| 2 | 13 | GIVE WAY PLEASE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 14 | 9.0 | SH |
| 3 | 12 | FORTUNE MARBO Closed strongly B2/TT M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 10 | 22.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | SMART COUSIN Closed strongly B1 V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 1 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | VIVA A LA Closed strongly H/P/TT M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 8 | 30.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | APEX TOP B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 11 | 5.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 5 | 4.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | MIGHTY STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 13 | 83.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 14 | TRAVEL GLORY Closed strongly B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 33.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | SMART FOLKS Led early B/SR S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 12 | 6.6 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly V C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 7 | 63.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO B/TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 6 | 29.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | SUPER KINGDOM B H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 3 | 69.0 | 9 |
| 14 | 2 | SEATOSKY CP-/V1 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 4 | 40.0 | 20 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FORTUNE MASTER | 29.8% | 3.36 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | SMART FOLKS | 13.1% | 7.61 | 10 |
| 3 | 6 | ERNEST FEELING | 8.5% | 11.78 | 7 |
| 4 | 12 | FORTUNE MARBO | 7.1% | 14.11 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | SMART COUSIN | 5.9% | 16.82 | 4 |
| 6 | 13 | GIVE WAY PLEASE | 5.9% | 17.09 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO | 5.8% | 17.33 | 12 |
| 8 | 3 | DAILY BEAUTY | 4.9% | 20.52 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | SEATOSKY | 4.7% | 21.45 | 14 |
| 10 | 8 | APEX TOP | 4.1% | 24.14 | 6 |
| 11 | 14 | TRAVEL GLORY | 3.8% | 26.52 | 9 |
| 12 | 7 | VIVA A LA | 2.5% | 40.33 | 5 |
| 13 | 9 | SUPER KINGDOM | 2.4% | 40.90 | 13 |
| 14 | 4 | MIGHTY STAR | 1.6% | 63.51 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 36
PLACE
10 17
12 51.5
13 35.5
QUINELLA
10,13 206.5
QUINELLA PLACE
10,12 134
10,13 91
12,13 263
FORECAST
10,13 371
TIERCE
10,13,12 4,039
TRIO
10,12,13 1,181
FIRST 4
10,11,12,13 2,190
QUARTET
10,13,12,11 31,980
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 19.5
A2 —