Sha Tin · 2023-02-19 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 1 GOOD 1400m Course A 7 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-19 was Class 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BELUGA, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with BEAUTY JOY second and BLAZE WARRIOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite THE GOLDEN SCENERY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.75

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	BELUGA Closed strongly H 1.21.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	5	113 lb	5.7	3/4
2	1	BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	6	135 lb	4.9	3/4
3	4	BLAZE WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · J Size	K C Leung	J Size	3	119 lb	11.0	1-3/4
4	2	CORDYCEPS SIX Closed strongly B2 A Badel · R Gibson	A Badel	R Gibson	2	128 lb	4.2	2
5	6	THE GOLDEN SCENERY H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	1	117 lb	3.0	2
6	3	HEALTHY HAPPY Led early V/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor	S De Sousa	F C Lor	7	125 lb	11.0	3-1/4
7	5	TURIN REDSUN V-/SR2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	4	118 lb	10.0	3-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick BEAUTY JOY (23.7%) finished 2nd — the winner BELUGA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	BEAUTY JOY	23.7%	4.22	2	4.9
2	6	THE GOLDEN SCENERY	21.0%	4.75	5	3.0
3	7	BELUGA	18.8%	5.32	1	5.7
4	2	CORDYCEPS SIX	11.5%	8.69	4	4.2
5	3	HEALTHY HAPPY	8.8%	11.30	6	11.0
6	5	TURIN REDSUN	8.2%	12.13	7	10.0
7	4	BLAZE WARRIOR	7.9%	12.67	3	11.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 57.5

PLACE

1 19.5

4 28.5

7 17.5

QUINELLA

1,7 134.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 88.5

1,7 44.5

4,7 71

FORECAST

7,1 289

TIERCE

7,1,4 1,985

TRIO

1,4,7 360

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 313

QUARTET

7,1,4,2 7,933

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9/1 163

9/7 1,113

3 PICK 1

A2 21.5

A3 —

A1 —

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