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Sha Tin · 2023-02-19 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOKO WIN B 1.09.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C H Yip 10 31.0 1-1/2
2 0 MAGNIAC V/TT1 Z Purton · J Richards 12 5.8 1-1/2
3 0 WONDER KIT L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 14.0 2-1/2
4 0 SUPREME LUCKY TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 2.5 2-3/4
5 0 PULSAR STRIDER C L Chau · T P Yung 6 15.0 2-3/4
6 0 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 14.0 3
7 0 YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 3.7 3
9 0 DECISIVE TWELVE TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 39.0 4-1/4
10 0 TAJ DRAGON S De Sousa · P C Ng 1 96.0 5-1/2
11 0 WINGS OF WAR CP1 K Teetan · A T Millard 8 25.0 6-1/2
12 0 BRILLIANT WAY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 5 26.0 8
13 0 DIAMOND FLARE B R Maia · P F Yiu 13 119.0 11-3/4
— 0 EIGHT TRIGRAMS H T Mo · Y S Tsui — — —
— 0 SETANTA B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes — 40.0 3-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOKO WIN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/2, with MAGNIAC second and WONDER KIT third. The 2.5 favourite SUPREME LUCKY finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOKO WIN—2. MAGNIAC+1.5L3. WONDER KIT+2.5L4. SUPREME LUCKY+2.75L5. PULSAR STRIDER+2.75L6. CALIFORNIA RAD+3L7. YOUTHFUL DEAL+3L9. DECISIVE TWELVE+4.25L10. TAJ DRAGON+5.5L11. WINGS OF WAR+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUPREME LUCKY (20.4%) finished 4th — the winner GOKO WIN was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPREME LUCKY 20.4% 4.90 4
2 0 YOUTHFUL DEAL 19.7% 5.08 7
3 0 MAGNIAC 18.9% 5.29 2
4 0 PULSAR STRIDER 6.5% 15.47 5
5 0 WONDER KIT 5.6% 17.91 3
6 0 BRILLIANT WAY 5.4% 18.63 12
7 0 WINGS OF WAR 5.1% 19.72 11
8 0 DECISIVE TWELVE 4.5% 22.08 9
9 0 SETANTA 4.4% 22.76 —
10 0 GOKO WIN 3.8% 26.31 1
11 0 CALIFORNIA RAD 3.0% 33.02 6
12 0 TAJ DRAGON 1.6% 62.07 10
13 0 DIAMOND FLARE 1.2% 86.23 13
SUPREME LUCKYYOUTHFUL DEALMAGNIACPULSAR STRIDERWONDER KITBRILLIANT WAYWINGS OF WARDECISIVE TWELVESETANTAGOKO WIN — wonCALIFORNIA RADTAJ DRAGONDIAMOND FLARE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 318

PLACE

4 61.5

8 23

13 31

QUINELLA

4,8 738.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 202

4,13 368.5

8,13 140

FORECAST

4,8 1,830

TIERCE

4,8,13 20,819

TRIO

4,8,13 3,527

FIRST 4

4,6,8,13 1,595

QUARTET

4,8,13,6 59,645

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 36

A2 —

8TH DOUBLE

1/4 1,095.5

1/8 92