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Sha Tin · 2023-02-19 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 2000m Course A 9 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-19 was Class 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. RUNNING GLORY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with BUTTERFIELD second and FIVE G PATCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite FIVE G PATCH finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.03.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly 2.03.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 9 5.7 1/2
2 2 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 2 6.9 1/2
3 6 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 2.0 1
4 7 ENJOYING B/TT Y L Chung · W Y So 7 11.0 1-1/4
5 3 RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT A Badel · C S Shum 4 8.7 2
6 4 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes 8 22.0 2-1/4
7 8 ABOVE B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard 1 32.0 2-1/2
8 5 CELESTIAL POWER V C Y Ho · F C Lor 5 25.0 4
9 9 DROMBEG BANNER Led early M F Poon · P C Ng 6 11.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUNNING GLORY2. BUTTERFIELD+0.5L3. FIVE G PATCH+1L4. ENJOYING+1.25L5. RISE BRETHREN+2L6. NEARLY FINE+2.25L7. ABOVE+2.5L8. CELESTIAL POWER+4L9. DROMBEG BANNER+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FIVE G PATCH (28.1%) finished 3rd — the winner RUNNING GLORY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 FIVE G PATCH 28.1% 3.56 3
2 2 BUTTERFIELD 15.5% 6.45 2
3 3 RISE BRETHREN 13.8% 7.26 5
4 1 RUNNING GLORY 12.4% 8.06 1
5 4 NEARLY FINE 9.4% 10.67 6
6 5 CELESTIAL POWER 6.1% 16.30 8
7 7 ENJOYING 5.2% 19.19 4
8 9 DROMBEG BANNER 4.8% 20.92 9
9 8 ABOVE 4.7% 21.18 7
FIVE G PATCHBUTTERFIELDRISE BRETHRENRUNNING GLORY — wonNEARLY FINECELESTIAL POWERENJOYINGDROMBEG BANNERABOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 57.5

PLACE

1 18

2 19.5

6 11.5

QUINELLA

1,2 195

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 60

1,6 28.5

2,6 33

FORECAST

1,2 410

TIERCE

1,2,6 911

TRIO

1,2,6 98

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 233

QUARTET

1,2,6,7 8,125

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 26.5

A1

A3

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,8/1,2,6 1,146

7TH DOUBLE

7/1 199

7/2 52