Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2023-03-15 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-15 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CABLE SPEED, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/4, with DRAGON PRIDE second and LOYAL AMBITION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 CABLE SPEED Closed strongly TT 1.49.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang 4 3.4 1-1/4
2 2 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly V Z Purton · T P Yung 9 7.5 1-1/4
3 7 LOYAL AMBITION Led early V-/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 2 4.8 1-1/2
4 5 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B M Chadwick · W Y So 8 18.0 1-3/4
5 6 JUBILATION V K C Leung · L Ho 3 10.0 2
6 11 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 11 40.0 2-1/4
7 4 LUCKY MISSILE CP A Hamelin · D J Hall 6 30.0 2-1/2
8 9 SMILING FACE B/SR/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 5 10.0 2-1/2
9 1 AI ONE H/TT C Y Ho · K H Ting 1 5.9 2-1/2
10 3 GOLDEN FAIRY B/XB Y L Chung · A T Millard 7 61.0 4-3/4
11 10 SMART COUSIN Closed strongly B A Badel · C H Yip 12 14.0 6-3/4
12 8 BARON ZEE B/TT H Bentley · R Gibson 10 42.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CABLE SPEED2. DRAGON PRIDE+1.25L3. LOYAL AMBITION+1.5L4. OWNERS' STAR+1.75L5. JUBILATION+2L6. FORTUNE TRIPLE+2.25L7. LUCKY MISSILE+2.5L8. SMILING FACE+2.5L9. AI ONE+2.5L10. GOLDEN FAIRY+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LOYAL AMBITION (24.5%) finished 3rd — the winner CABLE SPEED was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LOYAL AMBITION 24.5% 4.08 3
2 2 DRAGON PRIDE 12.6% 7.93 2
3 1 AI ONE 12.3% 8.12 9
4 12 CABLE SPEED 10.8% 9.28 1
5 6 JUBILATION 9.6% 10.39 5
6 9 SMILING FACE 8.8% 11.39 8
7 5 OWNERS' STAR 5.3% 18.70 4
8 10 SMART COUSIN 5.0% 20.18 11
9 11 FORTUNE TRIPLE 3.8% 25.99 6
10 8 BARON ZEE 3.7% 27.27 12
11 4 LUCKY MISSILE 2.4% 41.81 7
12 3 GOLDEN FAIRY 1.2% 83.49 10
LOYAL AMBITIONDRAGON PRIDEAI ONECABLE SPEED — wonJUBILATIONSMILING FACEOWNERS' STARSMART COUSINFORTUNE TRIPLEBARON ZEELUCKY MISSILEGOLDEN FAIRY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 34.5

PLACE

2 26.5

7 17.5

12 16

QUINELLA

2,12 185

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 67

2,12 70

7,12 36

FORECAST

12,2 321

TIERCE

12,2,7 1,153

TRIO

2,7,12 201

FIRST 4

2,5,7,12 477

QUARTET

12,2,7,5 8,178

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 23.5

A2

A3