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Happy Valley · 2023-03-15 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. VILLA FIONN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with HOLY POWER second and ONE HEART ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite HOLY POWER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B 1.40.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 8.6 1-1/4
2 1 HOLY POWER Closed strongly B/XB/TT1 Z Purton · J Richards 3 3.5 1-1/4
3 10 ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 12 8.8 2-3/4
4 6 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT R Maia · R Gibson 1 15.0 4-3/4
5 8 HAPPY WON A Badel · F C Lor 2 9.8 5
6 7 RIVER VIEWS C L Chau · T P Yung 6 5.1 5
7 5 LUCKY BANNER H/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 5 22.0 7
8 12 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR CP/XB A Hamelin · D J Hall 7 32.0 7
9 3 LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 11 13.0 7-1/2
10 11 SUPER BUDDY B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 4 60.0 7-3/4
11 9 IRON WILL H/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 10 6.2 9-1/2
12 4 MISSION BRAVO Led early B/H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 9 97.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VILLA FIONN2. HOLY POWER+1.25L3. ONE HEART ONE+2.75L4. RIGHT HONOURABLE+4.75L5. HAPPY WON+5L6. RIVER VIEWS+5L7. LUCKY BANNER+7L8. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+7L9. LEGION OF MERIT+7.5L10. SUPER BUDDY+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HOLY POWER (23.7%) finished 2nd — the winner VILLA FIONN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 HOLY POWER 23.7% 4.22 2
2 7 RIVER VIEWS 15.2% 6.59 6
3 3 LEGION OF MERIT 11.6% 8.61 9
4 9 IRON WILL 10.0% 10.02 11
5 2 VILLA FIONN 9.8% 10.23 1
6 8 HAPPY WON 8.9% 11.18 5
7 10 ONE HEART ONE 6.6% 15.15 3
8 5 LUCKY BANNER 4.6% 21.60 7
9 11 SUPER BUDDY 3.1% 32.22 10
10 6 RIGHT HONOURABLE 2.7% 36.89 4
11 12 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 1.9% 51.62 8
12 4 MISSION BRAVO 1.9% 53.83 12
HOLY POWERRIVER VIEWSLEGION OF MERITIRON WILLVILLA FIONN — wonHAPPY WONONE HEART ONELUCKY BANNERSUPER BUDDYRIGHT HONOURABLEYEE CHEONG WARRIORMISSION BRAVO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 86.5

PLACE

1 15.5

2 26

10 32.5

QUINELLA

1,2 157

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 59.5

1,10 68

2,10 122.5

FORECAST

2,1 389

TIERCE

2,1,10 2,780

TRIO

1,2,10 407

FIRST 4

1,2,6,10 1,770

QUARTET

2,1,10,6 32,737

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 32

5TH DOUBLE

7/1 31

7/2 314