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Happy Valley · 2023-03-15 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B 1.40.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 8.6 1-1/4
2 0 HOLY POWER Closed strongly B/XB/TT1 Z Purton · J Richards 3 3.5 1-1/4
3 0 ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 12 8.8 2-3/4
4 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT R Maia · R Gibson 1 15.0 4-3/4
5 0 HAPPY WON A Badel · F C Lor 2 9.8 5
6 0 RIVER VIEWS C L Chau · T P Yung 6 5.1 5
7 0 LUCKY BANNER H/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 5 22.0 7
8 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR CP/XB A Hamelin · D J Hall 7 32.0 7
9 0 LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 11 13.0 7-1/2
10 0 SUPER BUDDY B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 4 60.0 7-3/4
11 0 IRON WILL H/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 10 6.2 9-1/2
12 0 MISSION BRAVO Led early B/H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 9 97.0 10-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. VILLA FIONN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with HOLY POWER second and ONE HEART ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite HOLY POWER finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VILLA FIONN—2. HOLY POWER+1.25L3. ONE HEART ONE+2.75L4. RIGHT HONOURABLE+4.75L5. HAPPY WON+5L6. RIVER VIEWS+5L7. LUCKY BANNER+7L8. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+7L9. LEGION OF MERIT+7.5L10. SUPER BUDDY+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HOLY POWER (23.7%) finished 2nd — the winner VILLA FIONN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HOLY POWER 23.7% 4.22 2
2 0 RIVER VIEWS 15.2% 6.59 6
3 0 LEGION OF MERIT 11.6% 8.61 9
4 0 IRON WILL 10.0% 10.02 11
5 0 VILLA FIONN 9.8% 10.23 1
6 0 HAPPY WON 8.9% 11.18 5
7 0 ONE HEART ONE 6.6% 15.15 3
8 0 LUCKY BANNER 4.6% 21.60 7
9 0 SUPER BUDDY 3.1% 32.22 10
10 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 2.7% 36.89 4
11 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 1.9% 51.62 8
12 0 MISSION BRAVO 1.9% 53.83 12
HOLY POWERRIVER VIEWSLEGION OF MERITIRON WILLVILLA FIONN — wonHAPPY WONONE HEART ONELUCKY BANNERSUPER BUDDYRIGHT HONOURABLEYEE CHEONG WARRIORMISSION BRAVO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 86.5

PLACE

1 15.5

2 26

10 32.5

QUINELLA

1,2 157

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 59.5

1,10 68

2,10 122.5

FORECAST

2,1 389

TIERCE

2,1,10 2,780

TRIO

1,2,10 407

FIRST 4

1,2,6,10 1,770

QUARTET

2,1,10,6 32,737

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 32

A2 —

A3 —

5TH DOUBLE

7/1 31

7/2 314