Happy Valley · 2023-03-15 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GANG OF BROTHERS, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with SPLENDID LIVING second and BLISSFUL STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite LET'S DO IT finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | GANG OF BROTHERS Closed strongly CP/TT 1.40.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 2 | 11.0 | HD |
| 2 | 5 | SPLENDID LIVING Led early TT H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 11 | 5.5 | HD |
| 3 | 3 | BLISSFUL STAR Closed strongly V/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 1 | 6.8 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | TYCOON JEWELLERY Closed strongly H/XB/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 25.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | NOBLE STEED Closed strongly M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 12 | 49.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | KILLER INSTINCT Closed strongly V-/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 6 | 4.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | CLASSIC ARCHI Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 44.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | YEABOI Closed strongly B C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 8 | 61.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | CIRCUIT ELITE CP-/B2/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 27.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | LET'S DO IT CP Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 2.8 | 5 |
| 11 | 7 | AMAZING BOY TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 10 | 24.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | COMMANDING MISSILE H/PC/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 3 | 21.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KILLER INSTINCT | 18.7% | 5.34 | 6 |
| 2 | 2 | LET'S DO IT | 18.3% | 5.46 | 10 |
| 3 | 3 | BLISSFUL STAR | 13.9% | 7.18 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | GANG OF BROTHERS | 13.2% | 7.58 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | SPLENDID LIVING | 11.4% | 8.74 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | AMAZING BOY | 5.4% | 18.66 | 11 |
| 7 | 11 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 5.1% | 19.77 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | NOBLE STEED | 4.1% | 24.35 | 5 |
| 9 | 6 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 3.5% | 28.61 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | CLASSIC ARCHI | 3.5% | 28.76 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | TYCOON JEWELLERY | 1.8% | 56.67 | 4 |
| 12 | 1 | YEABOI | 1.1% | 89.55 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 117.5
PLACE
3 20
5 20
8 29.5
QUINELLA
5,8 318.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 64.5
3,8 104.5
5,8 101.5
FORECAST
8,5 838
TIERCE
8,5,3 3,850
TRIO
3,5,8 573
FIRST 4
3,5,8,12 3,184
QUARTET
8,5,3,12 64,401
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 17
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
9/5 157
9/8 1,109.5