Happy Valley · 2023-03-15 · 20:46
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-15 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. G ONE EXCELLENT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with HEARTY WISH second and SERGEANT PEPPER third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | G ONE EXCELLENT B/TT 0.56.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 9 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | HEARTY WISH B/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 20.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SERGEANT PEPPER M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | VAMOS H2 L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 3 | 6.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | DIAMOND SOARS H/P/TT Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 10 | 6.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | FARIBAULT B H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 1 | 5.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | FINGERS CROSSED H1/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 11 | 23.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | LIFE IS GOOD H/XB/TT V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 12 | 128.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | HANDSOME REBEL B/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 5 | 8.7 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | HAPPY HORSE H-/B1/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 4 | 26.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | CHEER FOR SOUTH K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 8 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | DASHING GLORY SR1/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 2 | 106.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 25.9% | 3.85 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | DIAMOND SOARS | 20.2% | 4.95 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | FARIBAULT | 11.5% | 8.72 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | VAMOS | 9.4% | 10.62 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | HEARTY WISH | 8.9% | 11.26 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | HANDSOME REBEL | 8.0% | 12.54 | 9 |
| 7 | 4 | CHEER FOR SOUTH | 5.6% | 18.00 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | FINGERS CROSSED | 4.9% | 20.31 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 3.5% | 28.39 | 3 |
| 10 | 5 | DASHING GLORY | 0.8% | 132.55 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | LIFE IS GOOD | 0.7% | 137.07 | 8 |
| 12 | 6 | HAPPY HORSE | 0.6% | 159.88 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 32
PLACE
3 43.5
7 15
8 46
QUINELLA
7,8 231.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 101
3,8 357
7,8 77.5
FORECAST
7,8 319
TIERCE
7,8,3 4,725
TRIO
3,7,8 1,165
FIRST 4
3,7,8,11 1,254
QUARTET
7,8,3,11 26,373
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,8/3,7,8 51,271
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 23.5
4TH DOUBLE
8/7 498
8/8 307