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Happy Valley · 2023-03-15 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 10 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-03-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/2, with JUMBO LEGEND second and HELENE FEELING third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size 2 1.4 1-1/2
2 6 JUMBO LEGEND H/V1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 8.5 1-1/2
3 5 HELENE FEELING TT1 Z Purton · C S Shum 7 21.0 1-3/4
4 7 PARTY WARRIOR H A Hamelin · K W Lui 5 32.0 1-3/4
5 8 PULSAR STRIDER B1 K C Leung · T P Yung 4 8.5 3-3/4
6 4 COBHFIELD XB-/CP H Bentley · A T Millard 1 15.0 4
7 1 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING TT A Badel · A S Cruz 6 13.0 5-1/4
8 10 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT V Borges · F C Lor 8 126.0 5-1/2
9 3 EN POINTE CP Y L Chung · F C Lor 9 27.0 8
10 9 MIRACLE BEAMS CP1 C L Chau · P C Ng 3 83.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE2. JUMBO LEGEND+1.5L3. HELENE FEELING+1.75L4. PARTY WARRIOR+1.75L5. PULSAR STRIDER+3.75L6. COBHFIELD+4L7. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+5.25L8. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+5.5L9. EN POINTE+8L10. MIRACLE BEAMS+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE (43.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 43.9% 2.28 1
2 6 JUMBO LEGEND 13.9% 7.20 2
3 5 HELENE FEELING 11.6% 8.60 3
4 4 COBHFIELD 9.1% 10.94 6
5 8 PULSAR STRIDER 6.3% 15.92 5
6 1 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 5.6% 17.75 7
7 3 EN POINTE 4.3% 23.43 9
8 9 MIRACLE BEAMS 2.3% 42.79 10
9 7 PARTY WARRIOR 1.7% 59.53 4
10 10 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 1.2% 80.35 8
HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE — wonJUMBO LEGENDHELENE FEELINGCOBHFIELDPULSAR STRIDERYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGEN POINTEMIRACLE BEAMSPARTY WARRIOREVERYONE'S VICTORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 14

PLACE

2 10.1

5 45.5

6 19.5

QUINELLA

2,6 55

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 49.5

2,6 24

5,6 137.5

FORECAST

2,6 54

TIERCE

2,6,5 543

TRIO

2,5,6 229

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 758

QUARTET

2,6,5,7 5,385

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14

A2

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,10/2,5,6 9,147

6TH DOUBLE

2/2 151

2/6 90.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,7,8/1,2,10/2,5,6 1,864,804

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,7,8/1,2,10/Any Combination 6,239