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Sha Tin · 2023-03-19 · 18:03

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-19 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY STRIDE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with HYPER DRAGON BALL second and UNPRESUMING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MIGHTY STRIDE Closed strongly 1.22.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 2.5 1-1/4
2 13 HYPER DRAGON BALL Closed strongly TT1 L Hewitson · T P Yung 7 15.0 1-1/4
3 14 UNPRESUMING B Z Purton · J Size 3 3.2 2-1/2
4 1 MAJESTIC COLOUR Closed strongly H-/V R Moore · F C Lor 14 13.0 2-1/2
5 2 FIND MY LOVE CP/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 2 24.0 2-1/2
6 5 NOT USUAL STAR Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · W Y So 4 33.0 2-3/4
7 10 COPARTNER AMBITION CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 13 35.0 2-3/4
8 11 BEATO Closed strongly TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz 5 55.0 3-1/2
9 4 GALLANT WAKING Closed strongly XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 24.0 3-3/4
10 12 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 149.0 4-1/4
11 9 STUNNING IMPACT B S De Sousa · P C Ng 1 32.0 4-1/2
12 8 TAMRA BLITZ H/SR/XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 11 19.0 5
13 7 NABOO LEGEND Led early B Shinn · D A Hayes 9 20.0 7
14 3 NEVER TOO SOON TT J McDonald · D J Hall 6 12.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIGHTY STRIDE2. HYPER DRAGON BALL+1.25L3. UNPRESUMING+2.5L4. MAJESTIC COLOUR+2.5L5. FIND MY LOVE+2.5L6. NOT USUAL STAR+2.75L7. COPARTNER AMBITION+2.75L8. BEATO+3.5L9. GALLANT WAKING+3.75L10. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick UNPRESUMING (28.6%) finished 3rd — the winner MIGHTY STRIDE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 UNPRESUMING 28.6% 3.50 3
2 6 MIGHTY STRIDE 22.8% 4.39 1
3 8 TAMRA BLITZ 6.6% 15.24 12
4 11 BEATO 6.5% 15.44 8
5 5 NOT USUAL STAR 5.1% 19.62 6
6 9 STUNNING IMPACT 5.1% 19.73 11
7 1 MAJESTIC COLOUR 5.0% 20.10 4
8 7 NABOO LEGEND 4.5% 22.10 13
9 4 GALLANT WAKING 3.8% 26.32 9
10 13 HYPER DRAGON BALL 3.1% 32.14 2
11 10 COPARTNER AMBITION 2.9% 34.49 7
12 3 NEVER TOO SOON 2.8% 35.37 14
13 12 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 1.8% 56.30 10
14 2 FIND MY LOVE 1.5% 64.61 5
UNPRESUMINGMIGHTY STRIDE — wonTAMRA BLITZBEATONOT USUAL STARSTUNNING IMPACTMAJESTIC COLOURNABOO LEGENDGALLANT WAKINGHYPER DRAGON BALLCOPARTNER AMBITIONNEVER TOO SOONINVINCIBLE MISSILEFIND MY LOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 25.5

PLACE

6 12.5

13 34

14 15.5

QUINELLA

6,13 202.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,13 75

6,14 22.5

13,14 85.5

FORECAST

6,13 263

TIERCE

6,13,14 1,095

TRIO

6,13,14 181

FIRST 4

1,6,13,14 548

QUARTET

6,13,14,1 8,462

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14.5

A3

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,6/6,13,14 42,916

9TH DOUBLE

4/6 46.5

4/13 48.5

SIX UP

5,10/1,7/1,3/4,6/4,6/6,13 1,644

10/7/3/4/4/6 406,820

2 [H Bowman]

11 [K W Lui]

TREBLE

4/4/6 4,534

4/4/13 5,694