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Sha Tin · 2023-03-19 · 16:48

Race 8

4YO GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-19 was 4YO over 2000m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE BUBBLE, ridden by A Badel and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with TUCHEL second and BEAUTY ETERNAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite BEAUTY ETERNAL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.02.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 VOYAGE BUBBLE Closed strongly CP 2.02.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P F Yiu 14 46.0 SH
2 6 TUCHEL Closed strongly R Moore · J Size 1 11.0 SH
3 2 BEAUTY ETERNAL Z Purton · J Size 7 2.3 HD
4 1 KEEFY Led early H K C Leung · F C Lor 5 81.0 3/4
5 13 STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly B Shinn · C Fownes 10 16.0 2
6 5 SWORD POINT CP H Bowman · F C Lor 6 6.6 2-1/4
7 9 SWEET ENCOUNTER B1 L Currie · J Size 2 119.0 2-1/4
8 3 SUPER SUNNY SING Closed strongly H C Y Ho · W Y So 9 3.0 3
9 12 ENCOUNTERED B-/H-/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 8 124.0 3-3/4
10 8 GALAXY WITNESS B D Lane · C Fownes 3 24.0 4-1/2
11 14 BON'S A PEARLA CP-/B1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes 4 69.0 6-1/4
12 7 BEAUTYVERSE H/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz 11 61.0 8
13 10 ATULLIBIGEAL B/H/XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 79.0 8-3/4
14 11 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR XB/H1 K Teetan · D A Hayes 13 42.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE BUBBLE2. TUCHEL+0.1L3. BEAUTY ETERNAL+0.2L4. KEEFY+0.75L5. STRAIGHT ARRON+2L6. SWORD POINT+2.25L7. SWEET ENCOUNTER+2.25L8. SUPER SUNNY SING+3L9. ENCOUNTERED+3.75L10. GALAXY WITNESS+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY ETERNAL (27.2%) finished 3rd — the winner VOYAGE BUBBLE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BEAUTY ETERNAL 27.2% 3.68 3
2 3 SUPER SUNNY SING 19.9% 5.01 8
3 6 TUCHEL 16.0% 6.26 2
4 5 SWORD POINT 8.8% 11.42 6
5 4 VOYAGE BUBBLE 4.6% 21.58 1
6 8 GALAXY WITNESS 4.4% 22.49 10
7 12 ENCOUNTERED 3.7% 27.35 9
8 11 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 3.2% 31.30 14
9 10 ATULLIBIGEAL 2.8% 35.88 13
10 1 KEEFY 2.6% 38.96 4
11 13 STRAIGHT ARRON 2.4% 41.95 5
12 9 SWEET ENCOUNTER 1.7% 59.83 7
13 14 BON'S A PEARLA 1.4% 70.68 11
14 7 BEAUTYVERSE 1.4% 73.08 12
BEAUTY ETERNALSUPER SUNNY SINGTUCHELSWORD POINTVOYAGE BUBBLE — wonGALAXY WITNESSENCOUNTEREDFLAGSHIP WARRIORATULLIBIGEALKEEFYSTRAIGHT ARRONSWEET ENCOUNTERBON'S A PEARLABEAUTYVERSE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 468

PLACE

2 12

4 97

6 28

QUINELLA

4,6 1,940

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 188.5

2,6 59.5

4,6 471

FORECAST

4,6 5,908

TIERCE

4,6,2 18,580

TRIO

2,4,6 1,417

FIRST 4

1,2,4,6 10,967

QUARTET

4,6,2,1 489,899

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 56.5

A2

A1

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,3/2,4,6 3,198

7TH DOUBLE

3/4 1,651.5

3/6 75