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Sha Tin · 2023-03-19 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-19 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TOP TOP TEA, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with RATTAN KINGDOM second and PROSECCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite RATTAN KINGDOM finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 TOP TOP TEA Closed strongly 1.22.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · C H Yip 1 13.0 SH
2 1 RATTAN KINGDOM Closed strongly B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 14 3.2 SH
3 12 PROSECCO B-/H- A Hamelin · R Gibson 4 36.0 3/4
4 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB R Moore · P C Ng 3 3.4 1
5 8 TOGEPI Closed strongly H Bowman · A T Millard 12 7.5 1-1/4
6 10 BEAU GOSSE CP L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 100.0 1-1/4
7 2 SPANGLE FORTUNE Led early TT K C Leung · K L Man 7 67.0 2-1/4
8 14 HA LEE CHARM Closed strongly B2/TT M F Poon · J Size 13 111.0 2-1/4
9 6 THE HULK B Shinn · C Fownes 6 9.3 2-1/2
10 11 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 11 7.8 2-1/2
11 4 COPARTNER ERA B M Chadwick · W Y So 2 34.0 3
12 9 LADY'S CHOICE P-/H/B1 C Y Ho · C W Chang 8 31.0 3-1/4
13 13 PEAK TO PEAK Closed strongly PC-/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor 10 25.0 5
14 7 LEATHER MASTER B C L Chau · T P Yung 9 191.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOP TOP TEA2. RATTAN KINGDOM+0.1L3. PROSECCO+0.75L4. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+1L5. TOGEPI+1.25L6. BEAU GOSSE+1.25L7. SPANGLE FORTUNE+2.25L8. HA LEE CHARM+2.25L9. THE HULK+2.5L10. LIFELINE VISION+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BILLIONAIRE SECRET (20.9%) finished 4th — the winner TOP TOP TEA was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 20.9% 4.78 4
2 1 RATTAN KINGDOM 17.6% 5.68 2
3 8 TOGEPI 12.1% 8.28 5
4 3 TOP TOP TEA 8.7% 11.48 1
5 11 LIFELINE VISION 8.2% 12.24 10
6 4 COPARTNER ERA 6.1% 16.49 11
7 6 THE HULK 6.0% 16.74 9
8 13 PEAK TO PEAK 5.8% 17.31 13
9 9 LADY'S CHOICE 4.4% 22.68 12
10 12 PROSECCO 3.3% 30.32 3
11 14 HA LEE CHARM 2.6% 37.74 8
12 10 BEAU GOSSE 1.7% 58.59 6
13 2 SPANGLE FORTUNE 1.7% 59.37 7
14 7 LEATHER MASTER 1.0% 103.22 14
BILLIONAIRE SECRETRATTAN KINGDOMTOGEPITOP TOP TEA — wonLIFELINE VISIONCOPARTNER ERATHE HULKPEAK TO PEAKLADY'S CHOICEPROSECCOHA LEE CHARMBEAU GOSSESPANGLE FORTUNELEATHER MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 130.5

PLACE

1 15.5

3 31

12 64.5

QUINELLA

1,3 172.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 74

1,12 162.5

3,12 336

FORECAST

3,1 424

TIERCE

3,1,12 8,916

TRIO

1,3,12 1,457

FIRST 4

1,3,5,12 1,190

QUARTET

3,1,12,5 34,566

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/1 220.5

10/3 2,210

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,10/1,3,12 1,185,098

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 41