Sha Tin · 2023-03-19 · 13:31
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-19 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TOP TOP TEA, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with RATTAN KINGDOM second and PROSECCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite RATTAN KINGDOM finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TOP TOP TEA Closed strongly 1.22.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 1 | 13.0 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | RATTAN KINGDOM Closed strongly B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 14 | 3.2 | SH |
| 3 | 12 | PROSECCO B-/H- A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 4 | 36.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB R Moore · P C Ng | R Moore | P C Ng | 3 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | TOGEPI Closed strongly H Bowman · A T Millard | H Bowman | A T Millard | 12 | 7.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | BEAU GOSSE CP L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 100.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | SPANGLE FORTUNE Led early TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 67.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | HA LEE CHARM Closed strongly B2/TT M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 13 | 111.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | THE HULK B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 6 | 9.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 11 | 7.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | COPARTNER ERA B M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 2 | 34.0 | 3 |
| 12 | 9 | LADY'S CHOICE P-/H/B1 C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 8 | 31.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | PEAK TO PEAK Closed strongly PC-/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 10 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 14 | 7 | LEATHER MASTER B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 191.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 20.9% | 4.78 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | RATTAN KINGDOM | 17.6% | 5.68 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | TOGEPI | 12.1% | 8.28 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | TOP TOP TEA | 8.7% | 11.48 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | LIFELINE VISION | 8.2% | 12.24 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | COPARTNER ERA | 6.1% | 16.49 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | THE HULK | 6.0% | 16.74 | 9 |
| 8 | 13 | PEAK TO PEAK | 5.8% | 17.31 | 13 |
| 9 | 9 | LADY'S CHOICE | 4.4% | 22.68 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | PROSECCO | 3.3% | 30.32 | 3 |
| 11 | 14 | HA LEE CHARM | 2.6% | 37.74 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | BEAU GOSSE | 1.7% | 58.59 | 6 |
| 13 | 2 | SPANGLE FORTUNE | 1.7% | 59.37 | 7 |
| 14 | 7 | LEATHER MASTER | 1.0% | 103.22 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 130.5
PLACE
1 15.5
3 31
12 64.5
QUINELLA
1,3 172.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 74
1,12 162.5
3,12 336
FORECAST
3,1 424
TIERCE
3,1,12 8,916
TRIO
1,3,12 1,457
FIRST 4
1,3,5,12 1,190
QUARTET
3,1,12,5 34,566
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE
10/1 220.5
10/3 2,210
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,10/1,3,12 1,185,098
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 41