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Sha Tin · 2023-03-19 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TOP TOP TEA Closed strongly 1.22.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · C H Yip 1 13.0 SH
2 0 RATTAN KINGDOM Closed strongly B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 14 3.2 SH
3 0 PROSECCO B-/H- A Hamelin · R Gibson 4 36.0 3/4
4 0 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB R Moore · P C Ng 3 3.4 1
5 0 TOGEPI Closed strongly H Bowman · A T Millard 12 7.5 1-1/4
6 0 BEAU GOSSE CP L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 100.0 1-1/4
7 0 SPANGLE FORTUNE Led early TT K C Leung · K L Man 7 67.0 2-1/4
8 0 HA LEE CHARM Closed strongly B2/TT M F Poon · J Size 13 111.0 2-1/4
9 0 THE HULK B Shinn · C Fownes 6 9.3 2-1/2
10 0 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 11 7.8 2-1/2
11 0 COPARTNER ERA B M Chadwick · W Y So 2 34.0 3
13 0 PEAK TO PEAK Closed strongly PC-/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor 10 25.0 5
14 0 LEATHER MASTER B C L Chau · T P Yung 9 191.0 6-1/2
— 0 LADY'S CHOICE P-/H/B1 C Y Ho · C W Chang — 31.0 3-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-19 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TOP TOP TEA, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with RATTAN KINGDOM second and PROSECCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite RATTAN KINGDOM finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOP TOP TEA—2. RATTAN KINGDOM+0.1L3. PROSECCO+0.75L4. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+1L5. TOGEPI+1.25L6. BEAU GOSSE+1.25L7. SPANGLE FORTUNE+2.25L8. HA LEE CHARM+2.25L9. THE HULK+2.5L10. LIFELINE VISION+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BILLIONAIRE SECRET (20.9%) finished 4th — the winner TOP TOP TEA was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 20.9% 4.78 4
2 0 RATTAN KINGDOM 17.6% 5.68 2
3 0 TOGEPI 12.1% 8.28 5
4 0 TOP TOP TEA 8.7% 11.48 1
5 0 LIFELINE VISION 8.2% 12.24 10
6 0 COPARTNER ERA 6.1% 16.49 11
7 0 THE HULK 6.0% 16.74 9
8 0 PEAK TO PEAK 5.8% 17.31 13
9 0 LADY'S CHOICE 4.4% 22.68 —
10 0 PROSECCO 3.3% 30.32 3
11 0 HA LEE CHARM 2.6% 37.74 8
12 0 BEAU GOSSE 1.7% 58.59 6
13 0 SPANGLE FORTUNE 1.7% 59.37 7
14 0 LEATHER MASTER 1.0% 103.22 14
BILLIONAIRE SECRETRATTAN KINGDOMTOGEPITOP TOP TEA — wonLIFELINE VISIONCOPARTNER ERATHE HULKPEAK TO PEAKLADY'S CHOICEPROSECCOHA LEE CHARMBEAU GOSSESPANGLE FORTUNELEATHER MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 130.5

PLACE

1 15.5

3 31

12 64.5

QUINELLA

1,3 172.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 74

1,12 162.5

3,12 336

FORECAST

3,1 424

TIERCE

3,1,12 8,916

TRIO

1,3,12 1,457

FIRST 4

1,3,5,12 1,190

QUARTET

3,1,12,5 34,566

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/1 220.5

10/3 2,210

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,10/1,3,12 1,185,098

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 41