Sha Tin · 2023-03-19 · 14:36
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B 1.22.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 15.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB1/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 5 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | WAR WEAPON Closed strongly XB/TT S De Sousa · P C Ng | S De Sousa | P C Ng | 12 | 4.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | WAR OF COURAGE Closed strongly B H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 7 | 50.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | VANTASTIC CHOICE Closed strongly C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 10 | 52.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 13 | 67.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | GOOD NEWS Closed strongly B/TT D Lane · P F Yiu | D Lane | P F Yiu | 6 | 4.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | PACKING MONKEYKING Closed strongly TT1 M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 4 | 35.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | CHOICERUS Closed strongly SR-/B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 14 | 90.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | M UNICORN H/P/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 11 | 20.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | ORIENTAL SPIRIT CP- L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 2 | 31.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER B A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 1 | 7.5 | 10 |
| 13 | 0 | COURIER MARVEL CP-/XB/V1/TT L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 3 | 214.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 0 | BAEBAE TSOI Led early CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 8 | 27.0 | 24-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-19 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY GOLD, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with GOLDEN BULL second and WAR WEAPON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite GOLDEN BULL finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER | 18.9% | 5.30 | 12 |
| 2 | 0 | GOLDEN BULL | 15.8% | 6.31 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | WAR WEAPON | 12.7% | 7.86 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | LUCKY GOLD | 10.2% | 9.76 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | GOOD NEWS | 8.6% | 11.60 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | BAEBAE TSOI | 7.9% | 12.63 | 14 |
| 7 | 0 | PACKING MONKEYKING | 4.9% | 20.26 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | ORIENTAL SPIRIT | 4.6% | 21.77 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | VANTASTIC CHOICE | 4.1% | 24.59 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | M UNICORN | 3.7% | 27.12 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | WAR OF COURAGE | 3.4% | 29.26 | 4 |
| 12 | 0 | JIANGXI STAMINA | 2.5% | 39.34 | 6 |
| 13 | 0 | CHOICERUS | 1.7% | 58.58 | 9 |
| 14 | 0 | COURIER MARVEL | 0.8% | 119.88 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 154.5
PLACE
2 13.5
3 16.5
4 37
QUINELLA
2,4 231.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 38
2,4 80
3,4 94
FORECAST
4,2 558
TIERCE
4,2,3 3,092
TRIO
2,3,4 286
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 2,106
QUARTET
4,2,3,5 61,428
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,8/2,3,4 14,635
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23.5
3RD DOUBLE
4/2 110.5
4/4 1,583.5