Sha Tin · 2023-03-19 · 16:08
Race 7
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Led early TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 1 | 1.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | WELLINGTON XB R Moore · R Gibson | R Moore | R Gibson | 3 | 7.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | COURIER WONDER Closed strongly H B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 5 | 35.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | WAIKUKU D Lane · J Size | D Lane | J Size | 2 | 34.0 | 6-1/4 |
| — | 0 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE Closed strongly J McDonald · K L Man | J McDonald | K L Man | — | 2.6 | 1-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-19 was Group 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with WELLINGTON second and COURIER WONDER third. The winner raced prominently from the start. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | WELLINGTON | 24.3% | 4.11 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 20.4% | 4.90 | — |
| 4 | 0 | COURIER WONDER | 5.8% | 17.10 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | WAIKUKU | 2.9% | 34.16 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 26
PLACE
1 10.5
3 14.5
QUINELLA
1,3 17
FORECAST
3,1 48
TIERCE
3,1,2 83
TRIO
1,2,3 15
6TH DOUBLE
7/1 39.5
7/3 428.5