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Sha Tin · 2023-03-19 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-19 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ESCAPE ROUTE, ridden by D Lane and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with FIVE G PATCH second and COPARTNER ELITES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite FIVE G PATCH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.01.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H 2.01.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) D Lane · J Size 5 11.0 1/2
2 1 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 3 3.2 1/2
3 8 COPARTNER ELITES Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 4.5 2-3/4
4 11 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B C L Chau · P F Yiu 12 15.0 3-1/2
5 6 ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard 10 32.0 5
6 13 ROUND THE EARTH B M F Poon · D J Hall 6 17.0 5-1/2
7 3 WOODFIRE BRO TT K C Leung · L Ho 14 21.0 5-1/2
8 12 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly B/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 21.0 5-3/4
9 4 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 13 23.0 8-1/4
10 10 CAN'T GO WONG CP- A Badel · F C Lor 2 54.0 11
11 2 ENJOYING B/TT R Moore · W Y So 7 15.0 11-3/4
12 14 YOUNG BRILLIANT Led early V Borges · C H Yip 11 126.0 13
13 5 SUPERBELLA B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 35.0 16-3/4
14 9 SNAFFLES K Teetan · D A Hayes 1 5.6 35

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ESCAPE ROUTE—2. FIVE G PATCH+0.5L3. COPARTNER ELITES+2.75L4. NATURAL STORM+3.5L5. ABOVE+5L6. ROUND THE EARTH+5.5L7. WOODFIRE BRO+5.5L8. S J TOURBILLON+5.75L9. PERFECT TEAM+8.25L10. CAN'T GO WONG+11L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FIVE G PATCH (33.6%) finished 2nd — the winner ESCAPE ROUTE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FIVE G PATCH 33.6% 2.97 2
2 8 COPARTNER ELITES 12.6% 7.95 3
3 9 SNAFFLES 10.3% 9.69 14
4 2 ENJOYING 8.5% 11.83 11
5 7 ESCAPE ROUTE 6.5% 15.28 1
6 11 NATURAL STORM 5.5% 18.07 4
7 3 WOODFIRE BRO 4.3% 23.06 7
8 13 ROUND THE EARTH 3.9% 25.38 6
9 12 S J TOURBILLON 3.7% 27.06 8
10 4 PERFECT TEAM 3.2% 30.89 9
11 5 SUPERBELLA 3.2% 31.47 13
12 6 ABOVE 2.2% 45.72 5
13 10 CAN'T GO WONG 1.7% 57.98 10
14 14 YOUNG BRILLIANT 0.6% 157.76 12
FIVE G PATCHCOPARTNER ELITESSNAFFLESENJOYINGESCAPE ROUTE — wonNATURAL STORMWOODFIRE BROROUND THE EARTHS J TOURBILLONPERFECT TEAMSUPERBELLAABOVECAN'T GO WONGYOUNG BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 112.5

PLACE

1 14

7 31

8 18.5

QUINELLA

1,7 162

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 59

1,8 41.5

7,8 84

FORECAST

7,1 528

TIERCE

7,1,8 2,005

TRIO

1,7,8 232

FIRST 4

1,7,8,11 790

QUARTET

7,1,8,11 19,080

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 26

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,10/1,7,8 3,504

5TH DOUBLE

10/1 10.5

10/7 309

TRIPLE TRIO

2,3,4/5,7,10/1,7,8 136,363

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,4/5,7,10/Any Combination 395

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