Sha Tin · 2023-03-29 · 19:16
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-29 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. ZACIAN, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with SMART FOLKS second and ACA POWER third. The 3.9 favourite ACA POWER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | ZACIAN 1.10.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · C S Shum | S De Sousa | C S Shum | 1 | 15.0 | SH |
| 2 | 4 | SMART FOLKS B/SR L Ferraris · C W Chang | L Ferraris | C W Chang | 2 | 4.2 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | ACA POWER CP H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 3 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | APEX TOP B H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 6 | 5.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | COMPULSORY B/TT K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 8 | 31.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | TOUCH FAITH P2 L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 12 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | DASHING GENIUS TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 21.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | REGENCY GEM V/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 10 | 32.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | VIVA A LA H/P/TT M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 11 | 20.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | ON EXCEL STAR B/XB/TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 4 | 11.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 2 | DRAGON KINGDOM K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 7 | 14.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | MEDIC ELITE PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 9 | 13.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ACA POWER | 18.1% | 5.52 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | APEX TOP | 13.2% | 7.60 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | ZACIAN | 12.8% | 7.84 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | SMART FOLKS | 12.6% | 7.96 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | MEDIC ELITE | 9.3% | 10.71 | 12 |
| 6 | 2 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 7.1% | 14.11 | 11 |
| 7 | 7 | TOUCH FAITH | 5.7% | 17.67 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | REGENCY GEM | 5.6% | 18.00 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | ON EXCEL STAR | 4.6% | 21.70 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | VIVA A LA | 4.3% | 23.06 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | COMPULSORY | 4.3% | 23.39 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | DASHING GENIUS | 2.5% | 39.27 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 154
PLACE
3 15
4 17
11 40.5
QUINELLA
4,11 359
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 32
3,11 102
4,11 111.5
FORECAST
11,4 854
TIERCE
11,4,3 2,710
TRIO
3,4,11 319
FIRST 4
3,4,8,11 304
QUARTET
11,4,3,8 10,671
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 53.5