Sha Tin · 2023-03-29 · 20:17
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-29 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on WET SLOW going. SPEED FORCE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C W Chang, won by 2, with COLOURFUL BARON second and EL VALIENTE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite COLOURFUL BARON finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | SPEED FORCE Closed strongly 1.50.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 5 | 19.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 1 | 4.6 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 13 | 6.3 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly V K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 14 | 43.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | GREEN LASER V1/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 4 | 5.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | GOLD COMET Closed strongly B H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 8 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly B K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 9 | 16.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | PAKISTAN FRIEND TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 7 | 20.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | TURF BRILLIANT B2 A Hamelin · L Ho | A Hamelin | L Ho | 6 | 47.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | SMILING FACE B/SR/TT S De Sousa · D J Whyte | S De Sousa | D J Whyte | 11 | 20.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | WAH MAY LUCK B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 10 | 7.4 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | SUPERB DADDY TT V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 3 | 16.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 13 | 7 | LE PLUS VITE H/PC/XB A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 2 | 37.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | LUCKY VICTOR Led early B/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting | Y L Chung | K H Ting | 12 | 10.0 | 21-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | EL VALIENTE | 16.4% | 6.10 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | COLOURFUL BARON | 13.3% | 7.53 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | SMILING FACE | 10.9% | 9.19 | 10 |
| 4 | 2 | GREEN LASER | 10.4% | 9.66 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | SUPERB DADDY | 9.5% | 10.49 | 12 |
| 6 | 13 | WAH MAY LUCK | 7.0% | 14.21 | 11 |
| 7 | 14 | SPEED FORCE | 5.8% | 17.33 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | SURE WIN WIN | 5.7% | 17.39 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | LUCKY VICTOR | 4.6% | 21.55 | 14 |
| 10 | 3 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 4.4% | 22.51 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | GOLD COMET | 3.4% | 29.18 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | DAILY BEAUTY | 3.4% | 29.83 | 4 |
| 13 | 7 | LE PLUS VITE | 2.9% | 34.28 | 13 |
| 14 | 11 | TURF BRILLIANT | 2.2% | 45.03 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
14 194.5
PLACE
4 18
8 21
14 52
QUINELLA
4,14 362
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 57.5
4,14 123.5
8,14 174
FORECAST
14,4 1,235
TIERCE
14,4,8 6,299
TRIO
4,8,14 776
FIRST 4
4,5,8,14 6,800
QUARTET
14,4,8,5 180,320
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/4 302.5
8/14 5,048
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 30.5