Sha Tin · 2023-03-29 · 21:51
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-29 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. HAVA NAGEELA, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-3/4, with MALDIVES second and YES WE CAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HAVA NAGEELA Closed strongly B 1.38.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 1 | 2.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | MALDIVES Closed strongly XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 3 | 23.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 5 | 8.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 6 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 9.9 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT Y L Chung · K W Lui | Y L Chung | K W Lui | 2 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | ROYAL BOMB TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 5.9 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | BEAUTY CHAMP H/P/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | BEAR SLAM L Ferraris · R Gibson | L Ferraris | R Gibson | 8 | 41.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | ROMANTIC COMBO B/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 9 | 24.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HAVA NAGEELA | 26.0% | 3.84 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | ROYAL BOMB | 15.1% | 6.61 | 7 |
| 3 | 10 | YES WE CAN | 12.8% | 7.83 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | VIVA HUNTER | 10.5% | 9.54 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | SKYEY SUPREME | 9.9% | 10.07 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | SO WE JOY | 7.3% | 13.74 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | MALDIVES | 6.7% | 15.01 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | BEAUTY CHAMP | 4.8% | 20.78 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | ROMANTIC COMBO | 3.8% | 26.05 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | BEAR SLAM | 3.1% | 32.57 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 20.5
PLACE
4 10.1
7 51.5
10 23.5
QUINELLA
4,7 223
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 83
4,10 33.5
7,10 244.5
FORECAST
4,7 410
TIERCE
4,7,10 2,307
TRIO
4,7,10 524
FIRST 4
1,4,7,10 950
QUARTET
4,7,10,1 13,770
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 15
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,13/4,7,10 75,856
5TH DOUBLE
13/4 236
13/7 299.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,5,11/4,5,13/4,7,10 5,575,595
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,11/4,5,13/Any Combination 3,141