Happy Valley · 2023-04-12 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD 2200m Course B 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-12 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. NATURAL STORM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-3/4, with ABOVE second and TOTAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.15.83

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B 2.15.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu	K Teetan	P F Yiu	3	126 lb	2.2	1-3/4
2	3	ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · A T Millard	A Badel	A T Millard	4	129 lb	6.0	1-3/4
3	7	TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall	K H Chan	D J Hall	1	116 lb	15.0	4-1/4
4	6	S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly B/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	7	124 lb	13.0	4-3/4
5	8	ROUND THE EARTH Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall	C Y Ho	D J Hall	8	120 lb	8.3	5-1/4
6	2	ENJOYING B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	6	133 lb	26.0	5-1/2
7	1	ESCAPE ROUTE Led early H Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	5	135 lb	3.6	18-1/4
8	5	CAN'T GO WONG K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	2	125 lb	38.0	22-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick ESCAPE ROUTE (30.2%) finished 7th — the winner NATURAL STORM was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	ESCAPE ROUTE	30.2%	3.31	7	3.6
2	4	NATURAL STORM	19.4%	5.16	1	2.2
3	8	ROUND THE EARTH	12.3%	8.14	5	8.3
4	3	ABOVE	9.8%	10.25	2	6.0
5	7	TOTAL POWER	9.1%	11.00	3	15.0
6	6	S J TOURBILLON	8.8%	11.36	4	13.0
7	2	ENJOYING	6.7%	14.85	6	26.0
8	5	CAN'T GO WONG	3.8%	26.47	8	38.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 22.5

PLACE

3 16

4 10.1

7 38.5

QUINELLA

3,4 57

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 21

3,7 102

4,7 54

FORECAST

4,3 83

TIERCE

4,3,7 639

TRIO

3,4,7 197

FIRST 4

3,4,6,7 283

QUARTET

4,3,7,6 2,682

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 14

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 2200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99